Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION...WITH A
VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION AT THE PRESENT TIME HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IWX
FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH 0-3KM SHEAR
VALUES ALSO INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO SUSTAIN WIND THREAT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
BALANCE COLD POOL STRENGTH. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
OUTRUN MOST PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE 100 HPA MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF
750-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. THIS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH STORM
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OR EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. WHILE DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT...A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

WHILE STRONGEST STORMS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...PASSAGE OF PRIMARY UPPER VORT MAX
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AXIS. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT TEMPERED WITH LOSS OF DEEPER SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY
THIS TIME HOWEVER...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD PERSIST
TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE TSRA POPS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE
WILL ALSO BE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HAVE
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND HAVE JUST ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO CAPTURE BEST
FORCING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND AS DRY SLOT SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME ISO THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK TROWAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MONDAY WILL BEGIN ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH SOME GUIDANCE AND MIXING TOOLS SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS
NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S. WITH FULL SUN EXPECTED THINK WE WILL SEE
SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR SURFACE AIDED BY STILL WARM GROUND OF
LATE SUMMER. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND TO COME UP WITH LOWER 60S NORTH
AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TO SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS EACH DAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MODERATING AIR
AND RISING HEIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK
AND MIDDLE 70S BY THE END. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD SEE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO TSRA MENTION AT KSBN FROM 21Z TO 00Z.
EASTWARD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR
THUNDER BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING...PROSPECTS OF THUNDER
AT KFWA APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH STILL SOME
LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS THIS EVENING AT
KFWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION.
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE PROSPECTS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEST
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY IN NATURE TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-210800-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 /249 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-210800-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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