Areal Flood Warning 41, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
710 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER INDIANA
EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

AS OF 245 AM THIS MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT
ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRESENCE OF WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE LED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
AND NE MO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH INDIANA THROUGH
12Z...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY 12-18Z THIS
MORNING (ENDING EARLY AFTERNOON). THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREATS PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL
ALLOW THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TO INCREASE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL
IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH.
STARTED OFF PERIOD THIS MORNING AT 12-15Z WITH 100% POPS AND THEN
DWINDLED THESE CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY TO CHANCE POPS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TRICKY DUE TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT BUT THINK MOS HAS A GOOD HANDLE AND ONLY UNDERCUT BY
A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS/RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S (FAR NORTH) TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

AS MENTION ABOVE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. LAPSE
RATES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A SEVERE THREAT LATE
TONIGHT. CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING.

MODEL DATA INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...SO WILL CUT OFF THE POPS AFTER THAT TIME. MAY GET
QUITE WINDY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO MIX DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS WITH THE MID LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  MODELS
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE IT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING.  ALL MODELS INDICATE VERY WET
WEATHER SPREADING NORTH INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING MONDAY.  WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SOUTH HALF AND ALL AREAS MONDAY.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
OUR REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  AT THE MOMENT MOST ENSEMBLES
INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO OUR REGION.

ALL BLEND SEEM TO DEPICT TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL. ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FATHER WEST.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOSTLY IFR ALL
AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

RADAR...WEATHER DEPICTION AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A LARGE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
AT TAF SITES MOST OF THE TIME THIS MORNING ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BACK OFF ON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TO JUST VCSH OR VCTS.

A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY ALLOW CEILINGS TO IMPROVE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  SREF INDICATES
NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING KLAF TAF SITE MAY REMAIN MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT
BEGINNING NEAR 03Z OVER WESTERN AREAS AND CONTINUING TO ABOUT
08Z-10Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE.  HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AFTER
14Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-040745-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
333 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO FLOODING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TIMING: THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER INDIANA
EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
321 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

INZ036-037-045-046-030800-
BOONE-HENDRICKS-MONTGOMERY-PUTNAM-
321 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOONE...HENDRICKS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM
EDT...

AT 319 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENCASTLE...OR 19 MILES
SOUTH OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DANVILLE...
  BAINBRIDGE...
  FILLMORE...
  CARPENTERSVILLE...
  ROACHDALE...
  LADOGA...
  GROVELAND...
  COATESVILLE...
  AMO...
  NEW ROSS...
  NORTH SALEM...
  JAMESTOWN...
  CLAYTON...
  LIZTON...
  PITTSBORO...
  ADVANCE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 8653 3971 8637 3963 8696 3976 8702
      3987 8701 3987 8707 3988 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 252DEG 25KT 3977 8692

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     HAIL             NEW ROSS                39.96N  86.71W
04/03/2014  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             WHITESTOWN              40.00N  86.35W
04/03/2014  E0.70 INCH       BOONE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JH