Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
847 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 847 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

Cold front and associated convection has now pushed well to the
east into Indiana, leaving behind windy and cooler conditions
across central Illinois. Latest obs generally show winds in the 25
to 35 mph range, with gusts occasionally over 40 mph. Will
continue with the High Wind Warning at this time, but this may
need to be canceled early as upstream winds across Missouri have
weakened even further. Made some minor adjustments to hourly temp
grids to account for the colder air spilling into the region, but
changes do not effect the going forecast. Therefore no zone update
is needed at this time.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 546 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

Line of convection has cleared the KILX terminals early this
evening. Behind the convection, skies will partially clear for a
brief period before MVFR ceilings further west over western
Illinois and Missouri spread across the area. These clouds will be
short-lived however, with skies once again clearing from west to
east later this evening. The only exception will be KPIA where
clouds associated with low pressure over eastern Iowa will persist
a bit longer. Skies will become mostly clear across the board
overnight through Friday. Winds will be the primary aviation
concern. W/SW winds will gust to between 35 and 40kt this evening,
then will veer to the W and decrease slightly later tonight.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest strong westerly
winds will continue to gust to between 25 and 30kt through Friday
afternoon.

Barnes
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

Short term issues revolve around a rapidly deepening low pressure
system passing across far NW IL this afternoon, with a cold front
racing across IL and into Indiana by 7 pm. Severe weather
potential will progress east along and south of the warm front.
Areas of very dense fog should dissipate behind the cold front as
well.

Very strong winds will develop as pressure rises reach 12mb per 3
hours. Wind speeds of 30-40 mph and gusts over 55 mph will develop
shortly after the cold front passes. Flooding is already occurring
across Knox and Stark counties where 2-2.5" of rain already fell
earlier today. More rain from the line of thunderstorms could
aggravate the flooding.

Beyond the very busy short term, we have various short waves
expected to move across IL between Friday night and Monday night.
With the colder air also arriving this weekend, most of any
precipitation that does develop should fall as snow. The models
are producing widely varying solutions as to amount and coverage
of any precip during that time, but we wanted to at least
acknowledge the potential for precip due to at least 2 models
showing some precipitation produced by each wave.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.

A line of storms will race across IL just ahead of the cold front.
Forward motion of the storms is being measured at 60 mph, with a
low level jet of 70 kts just above the LCL. Storms are moving from
to the N-NE towards areas with snow cover and more stable air near
the ground. We expect to see localized damaging winds from the
storm gust fronts in areas along and south of the warm front,
which generally extends from Galesburg to Bloomington at this
point. Isolated tornadoes could develop as wind shear rapidly
increases just ahead of the cold front.

As storms move farther north over snow covered areas, storms should
begin to lose the ability to blast damaging winds through the
stable low level airmass to the ground. The severe thunderstorm
watch goes until 6 pm for out SW counties, but an additional watch
will likely be needed farther east and south of the warm front as
the cold front moves across IL.

Dense fog has caused travel hazards for areas north of Rushville
to Lincoln to Bloomington, and a dense fog advisory will go
through 6 pm.

Shortly behind the cold front, very strong pressure rises will
produce very strong winds for several hours, with the strongest
gusts possibly as high as 60 mph in the first 3-4 hours behind the
front. Pressure rises diminish somewhat later this evening, but
sustained winds will likely remain around 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
at times until midnight. We may be able to remove some of the
wind warning headline a little before 3 am as conditions warrant.

A band of light rain or snow may move into our west-northwestern
counties this evening through just after midnight, but little to
no snow accumulation is expected.

The axis of coldest air behind the cold front will pass across our
forecast area around 12z/6am Friday morning. Clouds will begin to
clear out of our SW areas around that time, but lows should still
remain in the mid 20s north and upper 20 south. Warming occurs
through the day on Friday, as 850mb temps climb from -8C or -9C at 6
am to zero to -2C at 6 pm. West-southwest winds will remain brisk
and help to push high temps into the 40s across the board.

The first shortwave that could produce some light snow is forecast
to arrive Friday night. The GFS and Canadian have been
consistently showing that feature and a dusting to a half inch of
snow across the northern counties. The 12z Canadian did back off a
little on the QPF, but the 12z ECMWF has started pointing towards
forcing for precip during that time over that area as well.

The airmass cools down for Saturday, as high pressure builds into
IL from the NW. The GFS and Canadian once again team up on a
shortwave for Sunday, producing 0.5" to 1" of snow across our W
and N counties. The NAM indicates some snow for our southeastern
counties Sunday afternoon, while the ECMWF is not resolving that
feature as well.

More noticeably cooler highs are forecast for Sunday as readings
top out about 10-12F degrees colder than Saturday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

The third shortwave is projected to arrive later Monday morning or
Monday afternoon. There is some agreement on this by the GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF. With 3 models in general agreement, we
increased PoPs into the chance category across the north, for
another 0.5 to 1" of snow through early Monday evening.

A stronger push of cold air will arrive behind that wave, as 850mb
temps drop to -16C to -18C by Tuesday evening. Lows should reach
into the single digits above zero north of Peoria to Bloomington
Tues night, with single digits N of I-70 Wed night. The coldest
highs this week look to be on Thursday as readings remain in the
teens north of a line from Rushville to Champaign.

Light snow may return late next Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night as yet another shortwave pushes into the area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ056-061>063-066>068-
071>073.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>055-057.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-211200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPOON RIVER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054-055-057-211200-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-VERMILION-
524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 7 PM.

ILZ056-061>063-066>068-071>073-211200-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-
524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LITTLE
WABASH...EMBARRAS...AND WABASH RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 7 PM.

BARNES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
732 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY CITY               38.69N 88.35W
02/20/2014                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL OIL TANK BATTERIES BLOWN OVER...ROOF PEELED OFF
            TRAILER...BARN BLOWN DOWN AND TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
734 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     FLOOD            ALTONA                  41.12N 90.16W
02/20/2014                   KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER ROADS BETWEEN ALTONA AND ONEIDA,
            AND ONEIDA AND WATAGA.

0229 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALTONA                  41.12N 90.16W
02/20/2014  M2.34 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 0.92 SINCE 6 AM.

0246 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     BLUFFS                  39.75N 90.53W
02/20/2014                   SCOTT              IL   STORM CHASER

            FUNNEL OBSERVED HALF WAY FROM CLOUD BASE TO GROUND

0255 PM     TORNADO          ARENZVILLE              39.88N 90.37W
02/20/2014                   CASS               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E DIVERNON            39.57N 89.62W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN.

0345 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E DIVERNON            39.57N 89.64W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            NEAR I-55

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W KINCAID             39.59N 89.45W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            15 POWER POLES SNAPPED JUST EAST OF POWER PLANT

0400 PM     TORNADO          3 E MECHANICSBURG       39.81N 89.34W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED AND 5 DAMAGED. MINOR DAMAGE TO
            HOUSE. NO INJURIES. CAMPER BLOWN OVER. SEVERAL POWER
            POLES SNAPPED. CORRECTED LOCATION AND DAMAGE.

0400 PM     FLOOD            SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER AT SEVERAL INTERSECTIONS ON
            THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD.

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ILLIOPOLIS          39.85N 89.30W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
            DESTROYED.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ILLIOPOLIS          39.85N 89.27W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN ON OLD RT. 36.

0420 PM     TORNADO          2 S PANA                39.36N 89.08W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            TOUCHDOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PANA                    39.39N 89.08W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR TOWN

0422 PM     TORNADO          2 E PANA                39.39N 89.04W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. ATTACHED GARAGE DESTROYED. SEVERAL
            OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED.

0430 PM     TORNADO          4 N TOWER HILL          39.44N 88.96W
02/20/2014                   SHELBY             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND OUTBUILDINGS

0453 PM     TORNADO          3 W SHUMWAY             39.18N 88.71W
02/20/2014                   EFFINGHAM          IL   PUBLIC

            TORNADO CROSSED ROUTE 33 NEAR SHUMWAY. NUMEROUS POWER
            POLES SNAPPED. CORRECTED LOCATION AND TIME.

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
02/20/2014  E65.00 MPH       COLES              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTION OF 43RD AND WESTERN

0505 PM     HAIL             MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
02/20/2014  M0.50 INCH       COLES              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT 43RD AND WESTERN

0538 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W CHRISMAN            39.80N 87.73W
02/20/2014                   EDGAR              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
02/20/2014                   COLES              IL   MESONET

            29TH ST. AND CHAMPAIGN AVE.IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING.
            34TH AND WESTERN NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

0541 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.84N 89.68W
02/20/2014  M64.00 MPH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W REDMON              39.65N 87.94W
02/20/2014                   EDGAR              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF RT. 49 AND RT.
            133.

0553 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW RIDGE FARM         39.89N 87.67W
02/20/2014  M70.00 MPH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NO POWER IN TOWN

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY CITY               38.69N 88.35W
02/20/2014                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL OIL TANK BATTERIES BLOWN OVER...ROOF PEELED OFF
            TRAILER...BARN BLOWN DOWN AND TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON                39.57N 89.65W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL SEMIS BLOWN OVER ON I-55. SOUTHBOUND LANES
            CLOSED.

0600 PM     FLOOD            3 W FARMER CITY         40.24N 88.70W
02/20/2014                   DE WITT            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO SNOWMELT FLOODING.

0608 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AI 40.67N 89.68W
02/20/2014  M54.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     OBLONG                  39.00N 87.91W
02/20/2014  M62.00 MPH       CRAWFORD           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

0632 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W
02/20/2014  M55.00 MPH       MACON              IL   ASOS

0647 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT     40.48N 88.92W
02/20/2014  M53.00 MPH       MCLEAN             IL   ASOS

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
750 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
02/20/2014  M53 MPH          CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
807 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SULLIVAN                39.60N 88.61W
02/20/2014  M49 MPH          MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

0638 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
02/20/2014  M50 MPH          WOODFORD           IL   MESONET

0712 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT   38.76N 87.61W
02/20/2014  M51 MPH          LAWRENCE           IL   ASOS

0722 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
02/20/2014  M47 MPH          COLES              IL   ASOS

&&

25