Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AIDED BY WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF EMBEDDED H5 VORT MAXS IS
LIFTING THRU THE FA ATTM. EXPECT THE SE COUNTIES TO BE WARM
SECTORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO WARM
QUICKLY AND DESTABILIZE. SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA
BORDER ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N THROUGH THE DAY.

METEOROLOGICAL SETUP IS STILL THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
AND THE CDFNT WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG AND DEEP JET STREAM.
ADD IN BACKING SFC WINDS TO HELP WITH THE SHEAR.

UPPED HIGH A FEW DEGREES SE OF I-71 FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ADDED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE LOW NEAR THE OHIO-INDIANA
BORDER 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL CARRY COPIOUS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TURNING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TORNADOES TO FORM.

FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL END AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COOL NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP A SEASONABLY
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT UP ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A WEAKER ONE
AFFECTING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR
MASS IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT A DIURNAL INFLUENCE WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND WILL TRY TO HINT AT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES SO TOUGH TO
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THINK CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARM UP EACH
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WORKS EAST...WE WILL GET INTO A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME PCPN
CHANCES...BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT REALLY SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE TO THE S AND E OF THE TAFS WHEN
SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT. TO THE NW OF I-71...IFR ST DECK HAS
THE KDAY TAF SOCKED IN. BOUNDARY IS EXPECT TO BUCKLE TO THE N THIS
AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW KCVG/KLUK AND KILN TO GO VFR.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD WORK INTO THE TAFS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE.

AS THE H5 TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW SWINGS THE FRONT EWD
TONIGHT. A MORE SOLID AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT SWINGS THRU
LATE IN THE PERIOD...IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-151000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
309 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS... WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HAIL             CIRCLEVILLE             39.60N 82.94W
05/14/2014  M0.50 INCH       PICKAWAY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE TO HALF INCH HAIL

&&

KURZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
214 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     HAIL             ASHVILLE                39.72N 82.96W
05/14/2014  E0.88 INCH       PICKAWAY           OH   PUBLIC

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
228 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

OHZ073-141900-
ROSS OH-
228 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ROSS COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN
ROSS COUNTY...INCLUDING SUMMITHILL...BOURNEVILLE...KNOCKEMSTIFF...
LATTAVILLE...FRANKFORT...NORTH FORK VILLAGE...AUSTIN AND
ANDERSONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3948 8323 3950 8307 3941 8297 3920 8311
      3921 8332

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             2 WNW HEBRON            39.98N 82.53W
05/14/2014  M1.00 INCH       LICKING            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             4 NW NEWARK             40.10N 82.44W
05/14/2014  E1.00 INCH       LICKING            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

KURZ