Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Wilmington, NC

319 
WWUS52 KILM 200028
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
828 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCC017-200045-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-140620T0045Z/
BLADEN NC-
828 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY...

AT 826 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AMMON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE
LAKE AND LAGOON

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3475 7838 3470 7836 3467 7832 3460 7830
      3458 7826 3456 7825 3453 7877 3465 7882
      3469 7880 3474 7885 3479 7888 3484 7884
      3485 7852 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 300DEG 33KT 3473 7850

$$

KEEBLER

239 
WWUS52 KILM 200038
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCC017-200049-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-140620T0045Z/
BLADEN NC-
838 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 845 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3475 7838 3470 7836 3467 7832 3460 7830
      3458 7826 3456 7825 3453 7877 3465 7882
      3469 7880 3474 7885 3479 7888 3484 7884
      3485 7852 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 300DEG 33KT 3468 7839

$$

KEEBLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY COULD BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY
IMPACTING EXTREME NORTHERN ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES...AS STORMS
DRIFT SLOWLY SE. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS GROUND COOLING TAKES PLACE...BUT
AT THE MOMENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH SEEMS REASONABLE IN AREAS FROM RED
SPRINGS TO RENNERT TO ST PAULS TO DUART...WHERE AN SPS ADDRESSES
THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD.

WARMTH ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA FROM A CIRCULATION SEEN
IN VAPOR LOOPS EAST OF CAPE FEAR...WILL SHUT DOWN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING...AND DO NOT EXPECT NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY TO LINGER TO LATE EVENING.

DEBRIS CLOUDINESS APPEARS IMMINENT OVER OUR NW INTO THE CENTRAL
ZONES THROUGH EVENING AND WE WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BASED ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS INTO
LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL FLOW
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY
MORNING TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FALLING 500 MB
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER-TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR THE NC-SC
LINE AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
PLENTY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. A WEAK BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUN AND MON. ON SUN A DISSIPATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FOR MON AS WEAK
SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING PLUS PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. POP WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SUN GIVEN THE STRONGER
STATE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBILITY OF APPROACHING WEAK
SURFACE WAVE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POP SUN AND LOW CHC POP MON. DO
NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MARGINAL PARAMETERS.

PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY MID WEEK
WITH 5H RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST TRYING TO BUILD NORTH. DESPITE
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF RIDGE
WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO INHERITED
FORECAST...MAINLY BUMP TO CHC POP FOR THU. HIGH WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS RUNNING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY
LIMITED TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE TSTMS REMAINING WELL INLAND. THE
RADAR SHOWS A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD OUR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT NONE OF THEM POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
KLBT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND
AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STILL MENTION VCTS FOR KLBT EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10
KTS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES
BY 18Z FRIDAY...AS THE INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WEST WINDS AOB
10 KTS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCRE/KMYR BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE WATERS TONIGHT...WILL SEE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CIRCULATION AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST FRIDAY
BUT WILL STRENGTHEN UP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO
20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUN AND MON WILL BE MARKED BY ATYPICAL NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. WEAK FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUN THEN SHIFT SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES SUN
INTO MON. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE LATER
MON WITH REMAINS OF BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND TYPICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINANT THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE A SOLID 15 KT WHILE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...MAINLY
DOMINATED BY WIND WAVE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...SGL/CRM/III

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
411 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-200815-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
411 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDICES COULD RISE TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SOME AREAS AS HIGH AS 102 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-200815-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
411 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

9

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ087-096-192300-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
637 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 700 PM...

AT 637 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF FORT BRAGG MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO THE AREA THROUGH 700 PM. THE STORM
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...AMMON...DUART...
JEROME...REX...SHANNON...ST. PAULS...TOBERMORY...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE
OAK...LUMBER BRIDGE AND PARKTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3484 7890 3485 7882 3486 7850
      3479 7852 3473 7862 3474 7884 3477 7908
      3479 7920 3484 7922 3485 7918 3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 297DEG 18KT 3505 7914

COLBY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ087-096-192300-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
637 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 700 PM...

AT 637 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF FORT BRAGG MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO THE AREA THROUGH 700 PM. THE STORM
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...AMMON...DUART...
JEROME...REX...SHANNON...ST. PAULS...TOBERMORY...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE
OAK...LUMBER BRIDGE AND PARKTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3484 7890 3485 7882 3486 7850
      3479 7852 3473 7862 3474 7884 3477 7908
      3479 7920 3484 7922 3485 7918 3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 297DEG 18KT 3505 7914

COLBY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ087-096-192330-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
700 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH MAY IMPACT EXTREME NORTHERN BLADEN AND
ROBESON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF FORT
BRAGG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...ALMA...BUIE...DUART...
JEROME...MAXTON...REX...SEVEN BRIDGES...SHANNON...ST. PAULS...
TOBERMORY AND TOLARSVILLE.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3484 7890 3485 7882 3485 7866
      3475 7877 3469 7935 3476 7936 3478 7934
      3482 7936 3484 7936 3484 7919 3496 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 327DEG 13KT 3493 7924

COLBY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ087-096-200000-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
731 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN BLADEN AND
ROBESON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 730 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PARKTON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF ST PAULS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELIZABETHTOWN...AMMON...DUART...
JEROME...REX...RUSKIN...ST. PAULS...TOBERMORY...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE
OAK...DUBLIN AND LUMBER BRIDGE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3484 7890 3485 7882 3485 7852
      3486 7850 3484 7848 3459 7859 3477 7911
      3491 7910 3496 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 282DEG 17KT 3492 7900

COLBY