Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE REFINED/TRIMMED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND PERHAPS BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL ELEVATED
FLOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z. HOWEVER
THE WICHITA AREA AND AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO
HAVE VERY REMOTE CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
GIVE THE WICHITA AREA A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE AN AREA
OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  50  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
927 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 1 AM...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTERS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AGAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ100-020100-
LABETTE-
735 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 732 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUND VALLEY...OR 13 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF PARSONS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...MOUND VALLEY...ALTAMONT AND LABETTE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 9507 3714 9552 3732 9552 3733 9551
      3739 9516 3739 9510 3738 9509 3719 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 261DEG 22KT 3724 9545

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             6 ENE CHERRYVALE        37.30N 95.45W
10/01/2014  E0.75 INCH       LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEOSHO FALLS            38.01N 95.56W
10/01/2014                   WOODSON            KS   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN NEOSHO FALLS.

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
816 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ070-020145-
GREENWOOD-
816 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MADISON...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9596 3802 9596 3801 9600 3800 9615
      3817 9619 3818 9615 3818 9596 3817 9595
      3804 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 259DEG 31KT 3810 9605

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
828 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ072-020200-
ALLEN-
828 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEOSHO FALLS...OR 7 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF IOLA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MILDRED.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 9507 3795 9552 3804 9551 3804 9508
      3803 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 261DEG 29KT 3802 9544

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ093-020600-
COWLEY-
1221 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF CHILOCCO...OR 23
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...GEUDA SPRINGS...ARKANSAS CITY...DEXTER...BURDEN...
  STROTHER FIELD AIRPORT AND MAPLE CITY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9715 3734 9701 3736 9669 3700 9668
      3701 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 231DEG 33KT 3700 9714

KETCHAM