Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
758 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
758 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD STILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...VERY
LARGE HAIL TO NEAR 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND FUNNEL CLOUDS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED INTO THE LATE EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTERS
MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
714 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ099-100-020045-
LABETTE-MONTGOMERY-
714 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHERRYVALE...OR 12 MILES NORTH   OF
COFFEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS HAD
FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED WITH IT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHERRYVALE...MOUND VALLEY...ALTAMONT...PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPORT AND
  DENNIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9571 3739 9538 3738 9534 3718 9524
      3709 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 241DEG 25KT 3722 9555

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                37.98N 96.16W
10/01/2014  E0.75 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   PUBLIC

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ100-020100-
LABETTE-
735 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 732 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUND VALLEY...OR 13 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF PARSONS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...MOUND VALLEY...ALTAMONT AND LABETTE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 9507 3714 9552 3732 9552 3733 9551
      3739 9516 3739 9510 3738 9509 3719 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 261DEG 22KT 3724 9545

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             6 ENE CHERRYVALE        37.30N 95.45W
10/01/2014  E0.75 INCH       LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEOSHO FALLS            38.01N 95.56W
10/01/2014                   WOODSON            KS   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN NEOSHO FALLS.

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
816 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ070-020145-
GREENWOOD-
816 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MADISON...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9596 3802 9596 3801 9600 3800 9615
      3817 9619 3818 9615 3818 9596 3817 9595
      3804 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 259DEG 31KT 3810 9605

BILLINGS WRIGHT