Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON'T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO TSRA AT CNU TERMINAL WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER...AND A VCTS AT ICT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY AM MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK FLOW AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL FRONT IN AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT NIGHT EXPECTED WHEN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  72  94 /  70  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1012 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1012 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL OF DIME TO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH.

HEAT INDICES WILL HOVER NEAR 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1043 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             EUREKA                  37.82N 96.29W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ094-020515-
ELK-
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF LATHAM...OR 25 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOWARD.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9653 3761 9652 3761 9612 3760 9596
      3759 9596 3742 9596 3741 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 259DEG 49KT 3750 9644

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ070-020515-
GREENWOOD-
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EUREKA...MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9640 3785 9637 3785 9596 3765 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 280DEG 28KT 3775 9621

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KSZ091-092-020600-
HARPER-SUMNER-
1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1215 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUFF CITY...OR 8 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF ANTHONY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLUFF CITY AND CALDWELL.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9801 3716 9803 3724 9766 3700 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 260DEG 23KT 3709 9790

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KSZ100-020545-
LABETTE-
1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARSONS...MOVING EAST AT 35
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LABETTE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9507 3721 9542 3739 9542 3739 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 271DEG 30KT 3732 9520

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KSZ070-071-020545-
GREENWOOD-WOODSON-
1221 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1220 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST
  AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TORONTO AND BATESVILLE.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9585 3773 9596 3776 9627 3794 9625
      3792 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 276DEG 41KT 3784 9612

CARUSO