Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Wichita, KS

953 
WWUS53 KICT 020120
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
820 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSC049-073-020130-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-140902T0130Z/
GREENWOOD KS-ELK KS-
820 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ELK AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3753 9639 3777 9634 3773 9596 3748 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 287DEG 23KT 3752 9597

$$

LAWSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON'T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THIS
EVE...WITH NO THUNDER MENTION FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY 06Z. OTHER ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING. WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FAIRLY HIGH IN MOST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  50  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
657 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS ALSO...THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH.

HEAT INDICES WILL HOVER NEAR 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             4 SW WINFIELD           37.23N 97.02W
09/01/2014  E2.75 INCH       COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VIA EOC

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             6 NNE GEUDA SPRINGS     37.19N 97.11W
09/01/2014  E2.50 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA SPOTTER NETWORK

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ096-020045-
NEOSHO-
718 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. PAUL...OR 12 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF PARSONS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEOSHO COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9517 3738 9517 3738 9518 3752 9526
      3759 9509 3759 9508 3748 9508 3747 9508
      3739 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 244DEG 28KT 3747 9511

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
719 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             4 SW LATHAM             37.49N 96.69W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA EOC. NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
720 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW LATHAM             37.49N 96.69W
09/01/2014  E60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             1 E CALDWELL            37.04N 97.59W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER.

&&

JMR