Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AIDED BY STRONG HEATING AND
WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. STORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS...AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE INTO THAT REGION. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUB-CLOUD DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 25-30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS PM/EVE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY OSCILLATE SOME OVER THE KANSAS REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
WAVES...WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG/NORTH
OF THE FRONT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING.

EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION/CLOUDS COULD LOCALLY HINDER HIGHS SOME.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO POSSIBLY
MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN
MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE FLATTENING AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS COULD RESULT
IN DRIER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

CURRENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT (MCV) CENTER TO THE
NORTH OF KSLN HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE KSLN TAF SITE.  A COUPLE OF
LINGERING STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KSLN...UNDERNEATH THE MCV
CENTER...MAY ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KSLN...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS
FOR THIS CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS.  ALSO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR
KRSL...AS SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS MAY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO KRSL.

WILL GO WILL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KICT AND KHUT AS AIRMASS SOUTH
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MCV STAYS DRY.

ELEVATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE MAY INCREASE OVER SE KS TOWARDS
05-06Z/THU...AS WING OF THE MCV SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO SE KS...AND
MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES IN THIS AREA.  SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR
KCNU FOR THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME. THINK AFTER 09Z/THU...LIFT MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  95  71  91 /  30  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      71  95  69  89 /  20  10  30  30
NEWTON          71  92  69  88 /  40  10  20  20
ELDORADO        72  93  70  90 /  50  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  94  72  92 /  40  10  10  20
RUSSELL         67  91  66  86 /  20  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      68  93  67  87 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          70  92  68  88 /  40  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       70  94  68  88 /  30  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  92 /  60  30  20  20
CHANUTE         73  92  70  89 /  60  30  20  20
IOLA            72  90  70  88 /  60  30  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    73  93  71  91 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-072015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
309 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

HEAT INDICES OF NEAR 100 TO 103 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

HEAT INDICES OF NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ053-069-070-070030-
BUTLER-CHASE-GREENWOOD-
702 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CASSODAY...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF
  COTTONWOOD FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MATFIELD GREEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9641 3803 9634 3798 9673 3815 9678
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 254DEG 28KT 3809 9664

HAYES