Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALL INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. A VORT MAX AT 500 MILLIBARS WAS ANALYZED TO BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE AREA.
HOURLY LAPS/MSAS LIS WERE AROUND -4 AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE SECOND 500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MISSOURI
INTO WEST TENNESSEE BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR SATURDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE TWO INCHES...EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INITIALLY BY SUNDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA. IN
THE SHORT TERM...HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS STATES BY
SUNDAY...AND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 06Z TUESDAY AND SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY UPPED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
NEARLY AS FAST AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY
ON HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME COOL ADVECTION OCCURRING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HAVE REMOVED ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN
TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
NEARLY A CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND LOWS AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR BOTH HSV/MSL DURING THE UPCOMING
24-HR PERIOD WILL BE TSRA...WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CONVECTION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN
ALABAMA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COMING BTWN 08/20-23Z AS A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MISSISSIPPI SWEEPS ACROSS
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD EARLY THIS
EVENING...LEAVING A DECK OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS/CB BTWN
09/05-12Z. A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT NW ALABAMA LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SEPARATE
VCTS/CB GROUP FOR MSL BEGINNING AT 09/16Z. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT BRIEF DROPS TO IFR CIG/VLIFR VSBY WILL BE
PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT
5-10 KNOTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  89  73  92 /  40  60  40  30
SHOALS        72  89  72  92 /  40  60  40  30
VINEMONT      72  88  72  90 /  40  60  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  71  87  71  90 /  50  60  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  88  72  90 /  50  60  40  30
FORT PAYNE    70  88  71  91 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
451 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-091000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
451 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG IN NATURE...CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING ON SOME ROADS...AND IN SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS A WAVE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
CONTINUED UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID WEEK...AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TIMELY REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING OR WIND
DAMAGE THOUGH ARE APPRECIATED.

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