Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
656 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA
88-D IMAGES INDICATED THAT AN INCREASING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AREA TONIGHT.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND MOVING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE AT
500 MILLIBARS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY
WITH TRAILING ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS
BACK A LITTLE TO NEAR GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY AGAIN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WILL STILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...AS DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL BUT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH COULD CAUSE TEMP MVFR
CONDITIONS TILL 04Z. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ATTM CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FRIDAY TIMING DUE TO FRONTAL
POSITION.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.