Wind Advisory 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
606 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH 12Z WHILE
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
CONT TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE SO HAVE FAVORED THE GFS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 06Z WITH WINDS DECREASING
THEREAFTER. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST TO BE
DIMINISHING. BASED ON SPC 850MB MESOANALYSIS THIS BAND OF RAIN WAS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT WHICH
HAS BEGUN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. BAND OF RAIN WAS ALSO
PROBABLY ENTRAINING DRIER AIR FROM CANADIAN AIRMASS. RAIN BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS IN POP/WX
GRIDS SHOW THIS IDEA WITH ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST ENDING AROUND
21Z OR 4PM CDT.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER. THIS
ALONG WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR MIXING. WIND
GUSTS HAVE INCREASED THE LAST HOUR OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY SINCE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AND
SHOULD HAVE GOOD MIXING FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS. KHGX 88D VAD WINDS
SHOWING 30 KTS ABOUT 1000FT AGL SO LIKELY SEE FREQUENT 30 TO 30
MPH WIND GUSTS. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED IF WINDS REMAIN
HIGHER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY NOT LOOSEN
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MON.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW SOME
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON OVER THE AREA WITH SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...NAM/GFS SHOWING
ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO 3C AT 850MB MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MON
MORNING...WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MON IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG THE
COAST WITH 40F RIGHT IN HOUSTON. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH
WITH MOST AREAS RIGHT AROUND 60F OR IN THE 50S MOST OF THE DAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE SFC LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE C PLAINS
WHICH TURNS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER TX TO THE S/SW. THIS MEANS
MAX TEMPS GO FROM MAYBE 60F ON MONDAY TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY OR A
CHANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN SOME CASES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO SE TX BY EARLY WED BEFORE STALLING. FRONT WILL BE LUCKY TO
REACH BRENHAM/CONROE/CLEVELAND LINE. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE FRONT BUT GIVEN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THINK THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING BACK RETURN FLOW ON
THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AND THINK THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS FRI HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY CLOSE TIMING WITH THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY BOOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO CHANGE BUT THIS MAY BE THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      37  61  44  78  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  60  44  78  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            44  58  52  71  60 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-172045-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
332 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-172045-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
332 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
DECREASE LATE MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.