Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. THE 12Z GSO/FFC SNDGS SHOW ONLY
SUBTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BROAD HIGH PRES SYSTEM...PERHAPS
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN LLVL FLOW VEERED MORE
OUT OF THE W/NW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SFC DWPTS MIXING OUT A BIT EAST
OF THE MTNS...AND LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTN. WITH THAT
SAID...STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN ANOTHER MOD-HIGH CAPE DAY
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT TROF MAY
ENHANCE COVERAGE IN SPOTS...BUT THAT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. I
WILL LEAVE THE CHC POP MTNS AND SLGT CHC POP PIEDMONT AS IS FOR THIS
AFTN WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS OF 635 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TRIM THE FOG MENTION
FROM MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PRESERVING WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...THE UPDATE WILL FEATURE UPDATED MORNING HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS OF 340 AM...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER DEEP RIDGING
TODAY. LATEST W/V IMAGES INDICATED VERY WEAK FEATURES UPSTREAM OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WEST OF AN INTERESTING SWIRL OFF THE GA
COAST. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LLVL CIN
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK
WARMING THROUGH MID DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HOTTER THAN OBSERVED ON TUES. BY MID AFTERNOON...CAPES SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...WITH LFC ABOVE 5 KFT. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISO COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
LEVELS OF HAIL GROWTH TEMPERATURES...VALUES OF DCAPE...AND WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONE TO TWO SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ONE TO TWO HOURS
FOLLOWING SUNSET. DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO NEAR 70 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE
CENTER OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TO THE MS DELTA REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN SPITE OF THIS SLOW EVOLUTION...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GET ENOUGH OF A
PUSH TO DROP DOWN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE CAROLINAS...AT
LEAST NOT THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AS THERE MIGHT BE A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST ROUND OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL WNW
FLOW ALOFT STARTING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A
BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS IN
PREVIOUS THINKING...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE MCS TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH...OR AT LEAST PROVIDE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
WITH THE OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MCS MOVING PAST TO THE N. THE DIURNAL TREND IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WAS KEPT...BUT THE POP WAS BUMPED UP INTO THE CHC RANGE
ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA EACH AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORING FCSTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER DEEP RIDGING. LATEST W/V IMAGES
INDICATE VERY WEAK FEATURES UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LLVL CIN ERODES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
MTNS...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...CHCS APPEAR LOW TO WARRANT A PROB30. I
WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...SCT CU BASES
BETWEEN 050-060 KFT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT. MVFR TO VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY EARLY THIS MORNING...KAVL COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BKN005. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER
WESTERN CAROLINA TERMINALS WITH A PROB30 18Z-24Z AND VCTS AT KAVL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...I WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...SCT CU BASES AROUND 060 KFT.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
622 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MOORE

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