Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

486 
WWUS52 KGSP 182133
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCC071-SCC091-182200-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-140618T2200Z/
GASTON NC-YORK SC-
533 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
YORK AND SOUTHERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CRAMERTON TO 5 MILES WEST OF
CLOVER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BELMONT.
  CLOVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8102 3515 8105 3503 8105 3503 8107
      3501 8127 3501 8131 3511 8135 3515 8133
      3526 8116 3530 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 267DEG 8KT 3524 8107 3510 8130

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD YIELD A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS ARE BUILDING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM THE NW NC PIEDMONT SW INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. NOT MUCH STORM
MOTION WITH THESE STORMS AND SVR WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN A HUGE
THREAT...HOWEVER A LOCALIZED WET DOWNBURST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE STORMS NEAR AN AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AS OF 200 PM...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING MORE READILY THAN YESTERDAY
ACRS THE MTNS. I UPDATED THE POP TO TRY TO MATCH TRENDS. MOST OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS TO GET WORKED OVER BY THE CONVECTION BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW MUCH WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW...AND CELLS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED SO FAR AS THEY TRY TO ROLL OFF THE ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD GETTING MORE
ROBUST...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF CHARLOTTE.
THE 15Z-16Z HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH CHARLOTTE...WITH OUTFLOW FANNING OUT AND TRIGGERING NEW CELLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR
TENDS TO BE OVERDONE...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL. SO I DID
INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...BUT STILL GENERALLY
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
CELLS ARE TOPPING OUT JUST SHORT OF OBJECTIVE CRITERIA SO FAR. LAPS
CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3000-4000 J/KG ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. SO I
THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...WITH QUARTER-SIZE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR TO
LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...CLOUDS SHUD DISSIPATE AND WINDS REMAIN
CALM/LIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VLY FOG IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR 60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING
WEAKEN THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE CWFA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SHOWS
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT FOR OUR AREA. SO EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCT-NUM AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS AND
ISOLD-SCT IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE EAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE SC BORDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHT FARTHER
NORTH. IN ANY EVENT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A BIT MORE
SHEAR BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MODEST. ALTHOUGH
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MOVING CELLS
ALONG...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR REPEAT CELLS TRAINING EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH SO ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND BROAD UPPER
TROFFING TO OUR NE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER...DEEPER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT WRT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROF WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COHERENT SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP THE
TROF 1 TO 2 DAYS EARLIER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. DIURNAL POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT ON BOTH MON AND TUES
NEXT WEEK TO REFLECT GENERALLY MORE MOIST GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN
THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SENSIBLE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE
EARLIER GUIDANCE LED ON...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING ACRS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST HRRR ALLOWS SEVERAL CELLS TO DEVELOP WHERE THIS
CONGESTUS IS...SO I THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS AROUND KCLT
THIS AFTN. ENUF TO WARRANT A TEMPO FOR TS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
FAVOR A SW DIRECTION...EXCEPT NEAR TS...WHERE OUTFLOWS WILL BE
VARIABLE. CONVECTION SHUD WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG POTENTIAL
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTING
SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS...BUT BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCLT.

ELSEWHERE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTION WILL BE MAIN CONCERN
THIS AFTN. HAVE VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AT ALL SITES...GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS. CHCS ARE STILL ONLY 20-30% FOR
DIRECT IMPACT AT MOST SITES...WITH BEST CHC AT KAVL. CONVECTION
WANES QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT
KAVL...BUT OTHERWISE...NOT ENUF CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
314 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHESNEE                 35.15N 81.86W
06/18/2014  E60 MPH          SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
440 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ070-SCZ009-182115-
GASTON-YORK-
440 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL YORK AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CLOVER...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
YORK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CROWDERS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
  CLOVER...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE
DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND
SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3507 8109 3502 8140 3504 8142 3514 8140
      3517 8136 3517 8134 3524 8132 3529 8118

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ068-SCZ008-182115-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-
443 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BOILING SPRINGS NC...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  EARL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE
DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND
SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3514 8139 3513 8140 3507 8170 3521 8176
      3523 8176 3524 8175 3534 8148

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ036-182115-
IREDELL-
449 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  STATESVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3594 8070 3586 8070 3578 8074 3571 8101
      3583 8107 3586 8104 3591 8102 3601 8073

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             5 N CATAWBA             35.77N 81.06W
06/18/2014  E0.25 INCH       IREDELL            NC   PUBLIC

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ033-050-503-505-182145-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
458 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTH
CENTRAL MCDOWELL...EASTERN MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NEWLAND TO SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  INGALLS...
  NEWLAND...
  LINVILLE FALLS...
  ASHFORD...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3620 8188 3619 8184 3611 8180 3608 8176
      3599 8178 3597 8180 3595 8179 3584 8182
      3580 8188 3581 8215 3592 8216 3611 8211
      3613 8203 3623 8196 3623 8191

HG