Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TENN VALLEY
ATTM...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG IT AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM THE TRIAD SWWD INTO
CENTRAL GA WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH. ALSO IT SEEMS SOME WEAK DPVA MAY
BE AT WORK FROM RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCAL GSP WRF/S SEEM
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...ALLOWING MOST OF THE
CURRENT CELLS TO PROPAGATE EWD BUT WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SAME AREA. WITH THE FRONT SET TO CROSS THE MTNS AROUND PEAK
HEATING...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THERE...THE MTNS WILL LIKELY
SEE NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOP BY MID AFTN.

WHILE BUOYANCY IS A SEASONABLE 1000-2000 J IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. FLOW IS MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ONLY INCREASING TO SIGNIFICANT
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT...AND OTHER WIND PARAMETERS NOT THAT NOTABLE.
THE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO ALLOW CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE
FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY IN LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTS BUT ANY SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
ISOLATED. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NUMEROUS CATEGORY FOR
MOST OF THE AFTN...WITH THE MTNS RAMPING DOWN BY LATE AFTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PIEDMONT HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO STILL SEE SCT
ACTIVITY CONTINUE INTO EVENING. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
NOCTURNAL UPTICK SEEMED TO BE DOING SO AS A RESULT OF MCV/S
DEVELOPED FROM AL/GA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...BUT NEW RUNS DO NOT SHOW
THOSE.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF...THOUGH THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY ENOUGH THRU THE PIEDMONT TO HANG ON TO AN
ISOLD/SCHC MENTION THERE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SFC RH REMAINS
HIGH ENOUGH ACRS THE FA THAT SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY IN MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RAINS
THIS AFTN. APPRECIABLE DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
WHEN THE DRIER DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. NONETHELESS...BOTH
MIN/MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WED
NIGHT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM CYCLONIC TO FLAT RIDGING
THROUGH FRI. A DEEPLY DRY ATMOS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED NIGHT
ALLOWING BETTER COOLING AND SFC BASED INVERSIONS TO SET UP...HOWEVER
ANY FG THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH A VERY DRY BL. THE LLVL FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY N/LY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LOW TD/S...ARND THE M50S MOST LOCALES. THIS LLVL DRYNESS
ALONG WITH NO SIGFNT MOISTURE FLUX OR FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...GENERATING ONLY FAIR WX CU WITH MAXES JUST SHY OF
NORMAL LEVELS. BASICALLY A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE THU NIGHT IN THE LLVL WIND FIELD AS THE SFC
HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN A
MOIST E/LY FLOW AND ALLOW FOR ISENT LIFT ATOP A WEAK SFC WEDGE.
THERE WON/T BE ENUF MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE ISOL -SHRA UNTIL MID
MORNING FRI AS CPD/S REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 100 MB/S. A SLOW INCREASE IN
TD/S AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MTN ZONES WHERE INCREASING VORT ENERGY MOVES NE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WRN S/W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE LOW END
CHANCE AND/OR ISOL -SHRA BY MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM THU/S LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT...ALBEIT MORE
SUBTLE...IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS THE MEAN
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MORE OR LESS RETROGRADES NEARER
THE MISS VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
SPREAD BACK INTO OUR AREA BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN FACT...CONSIDERING THE
QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THE TROUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE-CLIMO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (DURING
THE DAY AS WELL AS AT NIGHT) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
SPELLING AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS MAY FINALLY REBOUND TO
NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHOWERY/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS DUE TO LEE TROUGH AND WEAK
VORT ADVECTION AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THRU TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM TSRA IS GREATEST DURING THE AFTN
THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE MANY OF THE TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WITH ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. FRONT SHOULD BRING
WINDS SOLIDLY NW BY 03-04Z...WITH SFC CONDITIONS TOO DRY FOR FOG OR
STRATUS AT DAYBREAK WED. LOW VFR STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT OVER EAST TN AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ESEWD
ACRS THE TERMINALS...DEPARTING THE AREA THIS EVENING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO WARRANT A PREVAILING PRECIP
MENTION...GENERALLY TSRA...IN ALL THE TAFS. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR VSBY IN HVY RA. HIGHLIGHTED
THE POSSIBILITY WITH SCT MVFR BASES. EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHICH IS
ALREADY CHANNELED NW...MAINLY WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING
AFTER THE FROPA. NW WINDS THEN PREVAIL. UP-VALLEY FLOW AND SFC
MOISTURE REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO THINK SOME MTN VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT DAYBREAK WED. HOWEVER PROFILES ARE RATHER UNFAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG...SO KAVL HAS MVFR VSBY WITH SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WED AND THU.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK
WEEK AND WEEKEND...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS APPEARS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...

AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886

RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...

AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>006-010-161000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-161000-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA T0DAY. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SALISBURY           35.71N 80.49W
07/15/2014                   ROWAN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON POWER LINE ALONG PINE HILL ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW