Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 15, 2014Mecklenburg County, Union County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 15, 2014, 5:54 PM EDT for Mecklenburg County, Union County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2014, 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Mecklenburg County, NC, Union County, NC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 15, 6:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOODMatthews, NCMULTIPLE REPORTS OF SEVERE URBAN FLOODING IN MATTHEWS AND VICINITY. IN SOME CASES...WATER IS UP TO THE WINDOWS OF VEHICLES.
Jul 15, 6:30 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Nnw Matthews, NCSOCIAL MEDIA REPORT AND PHOTO OF FLOODING OF A TRIBUTARY OF MCALPINE CREEK NEAR THE 1500 BLOCK OF SAM NEWELL ROAD. THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING AT THIS LOCATION APPEARS TO MAKE TRAFFIC IMPASSABLE.
Jul 15, 6:30 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Sse Mint Hill, NCGAUGE ON GOOSE CREEK AT STEVENS MILL ROAD WAS 10.82 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. STEVENS MILL ROAD FLOODS AT 9 FEET.
Jul 15, 6:45 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Wsw Fairview, NCSTAGE ON GOOSE CREEK AT MILL GROVE ROAD WAS 7.97 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET.
Jul 15, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.22 N Stallings, NCNCDOT FACILITY RAIN GAGE
Jul 15, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.93 Wsw Matthews, NCPROVIDENCE HS
Jul 15, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.22 Sse Mint Hill, NCTHOMPSON FARM RAIN GAGE
Jul 15, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.61 Sw Matthews, NCMATTHEWS ES
Jul 15, 7:10 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Sse Mint Hill, NCGAGE ON GOOSE CREEK AT STEVENS MILL ROAD REACHED A CREST OF 11.29 FEET AT 710 PM. THE CREEK WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET AT 621 PM. MODERATE FLOODING AT THIS LOCATION IS 12 FEET SO CRESTED BELOW THAT LEVEL. STEVENS MILL ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 946 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 12 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
946 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
887 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

493 
WGUS52 KGSP 152154
FFWGSP
NCC119-179-160100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0015.140715T2154Z-140716T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
  CAROLINA...
  NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE       
  MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTY LINE. RADAR INDICATES 2 TO 3 INCHES   
  OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA SINCE 430 PM. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  
  CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP  
  TO AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.  

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO   
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE URBAN  
  AREAS AROUND FAIRVIEW...MATTHEWS...MINT HILL AND STALLINGS. IN     
  ADDITION...RAPID RISES ALONG GOOSE CREEK AND IRVINS CREEK...AS     
  WELL AS OTHER SMALL STREAMS IN THE WARNING AREA WILL RESULT IN     
  FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8060 3512 8081 3527 8067 3517 8046

$$
LANE
2 follow-up statements
435 
WGUS72 KGSP 152248
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

NCC119-179-160100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140716T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL UNION AND
EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTIES IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. AUTOMATED RAINFALL GAUGES INDICATE 3 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN 
BETWEEN MATTHEWS AND MINT HILL SINCE 430 PM. ACCORDING TO RADAR...AS 
MUCH AS 6 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. 

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SEVERE URBAN FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM 
THE MATTHEWS AREA. WATER WAS OBSERVED RUSHING RAPIDLY DOWN ROADWAYS 
IN THE AREA...AND MULTIPLE VEHICLES WERE SUBMERGED IN WATER. IN 
ADDITION... GOOSE CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS...AND IS LIKELY 
FLOODING STEVENS MILL ROAD IN THE STALLINGS AREA. 

WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS BEGINNING TO END ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...ONGOING FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MID-EVENING.  NEW 
FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON CREEKS WITH A SLOWER RESPONSE TIME... 
OR AS FLOOD WATERS PROGRESS DOWN STREAM.    

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE MATTHEWS AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY OFF ROADS.
 
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8060 3512 8081 3527 8067 3517 8046

$$
LANE
947 
WGUS72 KGSP 160005
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

NCC119-179-160100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140716T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL UNION AND
EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTIES IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 750 PM EDT...FLOODWATERS ALONG THE I-485 AND HIGHWAY 51 CORRIDORS
THROUGHOUT MATTHEWS AND MINT HILL WILL SLOWLY RECEDE THIS EVENING AS 
WATER WORKS IT/S WAY DOWN AREA STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY MAIN STEM 
RIVERS. HIGH WATER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED ALONG
GOOSE...CLEAR...MCALPINE...CROOKED AND FOUR MILE CREEKS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES.  ALONG GOOSE CREEK...STEVENS MILL ROAD REMAINED
FLOODED...AND A TRIBUTARY OF MCALPINE CREEK WAS FLOODING A PORTION
OF SAM NEWEL ROAD.  

SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
FAIRVIEW...HEMBY BRIDGE...LAKE PARK...MATTHEWS...MCALPINE CREEK
PARK...MINT HILL AND STALLINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8060 3512 8081 3521 8073 3522 8068
      3524 8060 3517 8047 3516 8047

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 15, 2:36 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:36 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TENN VALLEY
ATTM...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG IT AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM THE TRIAD SWWD INTO
CENTRAL GA WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH. ALSO IT SEEMS SOME WEAK DPVA MAY
BE AT WORK FROM RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCAL GSP WRF/S SEEM
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...ALLOWING MOST OF THE
CURRENT CELLS TO PROPAGATE EWD BUT WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SAME AREA. WITH THE FRONT SET TO CROSS THE MTNS AROUND PEAK
HEATING...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THERE...THE MTNS WILL LIKELY
SEE NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOP BY MID AFTN.

WHILE BUOYANCY IS A SEASONABLE 1000-2000 J IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. FLOW IS MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ONLY INCREASING TO SIGNIFICANT
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT...AND OTHER WIND PARAMETERS NOT THAT NOTABLE.
THE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO ALLOW CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE
FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY IN LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTS BUT ANY SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
ISOLATED. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NUMEROUS CATEGORY FOR
MOST OF THE AFTN...WITH THE MTNS RAMPING DOWN BY LATE AFTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PIEDMONT HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO STILL SEE SCT
ACTIVITY CONTINUE INTO EVENING. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
NOCTURNAL UPTICK SEEMED TO BE DOING SO AS A RESULT OF MCV/S
DEVELOPED FROM AL/GA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...BUT NEW RUNS DO NOT SHOW
THOSE.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF...THOUGH THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY ENOUGH THRU THE PIEDMONT TO HANG ON TO AN
ISOLD/SCHC MENTION THERE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SFC RH REMAINS
HIGH ENOUGH ACRS THE FA THAT SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY IN MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RAINS
THIS AFTN. APPRECIABLE DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
WHEN THE DRIER DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. NONETHELESS...BOTH
MIN/MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WED
NIGHT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM CYCLONIC TO FLAT RIDGING
THROUGH FRI. A DEEPLY DRY ATMOS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED NIGHT
ALLOWING BETTER COOLING AND SFC BASED INVERSIONS TO SET UP...HOWEVER
ANY FG THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH A VERY DRY BL. THE LLVL FLOW WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY N/LY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LOW TD/S...ARND THE M50S MOST LOCALES. THIS LLVL DRYNESS
ALONG WITH NO SIGFNT MOISTURE FLUX OR FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...GENERATING ONLY FAIR WX CU WITH MAXES JUST SHY OF
NORMAL LEVELS. BASICALLY A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE THU NIGHT IN THE LLVL WIND FIELD AS THE SFC
HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN A
MOIST E/LY FLOW AND ALLOW FOR ISENT LIFT ATOP A WEAK SFC WEDGE.
THERE WON/T BE ENUF MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE ISOL -SHRA UNTIL MID
MORNING FRI AS CPD/S REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 100 MB/S. A SLOW INCREASE IN
TD/S AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MTN ZONES WHERE INCREASING VORT ENERGY MOVES NE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WRN S/W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE LOW END
CHANCE AND/OR ISOL -SHRA BY MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM THU/S LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT...ALBEIT MORE
SUBTLE...IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS THE MEAN
EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MORE OR LESS RETROGRADES NEARER
THE MISS VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
SPREAD BACK INTO OUR AREA BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN FACT...CONSIDERING THE
QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THE TROUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE-CLIMO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (DURING
THE DAY AS WELL AS AT NIGHT) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
SPELLING AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS MAY FINALLY REBOUND TO
NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHOWERY/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS DUE TO LEE TROUGH AND WEAK
VORT ADVECTION AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THRU TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM TSRA IS GREATEST DURING THE AFTN
THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE MANY OF THE TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WITH ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. FRONT SHOULD BRING
WINDS SOLIDLY NW BY 03-04Z...WITH SFC CONDITIONS TOO DRY FOR FOG OR
STRATUS AT DAYBREAK WED. LOW VFR STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT OVER EAST TN AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ESEWD
ACRS THE TERMINALS...DEPARTING THE AREA THIS EVENING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO WARRANT A PREVAILING PRECIP
MENTION...GENERALLY TSRA...IN ALL THE TAFS. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR VSBY IN HVY RA. HIGHLIGHTED
THE POSSIBILITY WITH SCT MVFR BASES. EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHICH IS
ALREADY CHANNELED NW...MAINLY WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING
AFTER THE FROPA. NW WINDS THEN PREVAIL. UP-VALLEY FLOW AND SFC
MOISTURE REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO THINK SOME MTN VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT DAYBREAK WED. HOWEVER PROFILES ARE RATHER UNFAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG...SO KAVL HAS MVFR VSBY WITH SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WED AND THU.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE WORK
WEEK AND WEEKEND...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS APPEARS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...

AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886

RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...

AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...JAT
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 5:24 AM EDT, 12 hours 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>006-010-161000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-161000-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA T0DAY. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SALISBURY           35.71N 80.49W
07/15/2014                   ROWAN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON POWER LINE ALONG PINE HILL ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:02 PM EDT, 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE CHARLOTTE         35.15N 80.69W
07/15/2014                   MECKLENBURG        NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTS POWER LINES DOWN ON TWO VEHICLES
            NEAR INDEPENDENCE HIGH SCHOOL. ALSO A POWER POLE DOWN IN
            THE SAME AREA.

&&

JLANE
Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:23 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINT HILL               35.18N 80.66W
07/15/2014                   MECKLENBURG        NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON LAWYERS RD.

&&

JLANE
Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:32 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
532 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             3 NE MATTHEWS           35.15N 80.68W
07/15/2014  E0.75 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER/HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL AT
            IDLEWILD RD AND HIGHWAY 51.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINT HILL               35.18N 80.66W
07/15/2014                   MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN THE MINT HILL AREA.

&&

JLANE
Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:38 PM EDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W SALISBURY           35.67N 80.57W
07/15/2014                   ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE SIX INCH DIAMETER OAK LIMB WAS DOWN ALONG NEAL
            ROAD.TIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:48 PM EDT, 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

SCZ009-014-152230-
CHESTER-YORK-
548 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND
NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARVIN TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF UNION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LESSLIE...
  ROCK HILL...MCCONNELLS...LOWRYS...LEEDS...FORT MILL...EDGEMOOR...
  CHESTER AND CATAWBA.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3482 8089 3479 8088 3457 8142 3464 8142
      3466 8145 3472 8145 3475 8147 3476 8145
      3479 8146 3506 8090 3501 8090 3495 8086
      3484 8086

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 8:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Mitchell, Yancey79 min
Jul 14, 9:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Avery, Burke, Caldwell, Mitchell59 min
Jul 15, 12:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell34 min
Jul 15, 1:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan33 min
Jul 15, 2:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland28 min
Jul 15, 2:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Rutherford54 min
Jul 15, 2:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell29 min
Jul 15, 2:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford45 min
Jul 15, 2:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie, Rowan52 min
Jul 15, 3:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPPolk27 min
Jul 15, 3:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford30 min
Jul 15, 4:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus42 min
Jul 15, 4:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union65 min
Jul 15, 5:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union61 min
Jul 15, 5:38 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg, Union112 min
Jul 15, 6:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion48 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.