Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN THROUGH THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND. EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN M-ONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2300 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND POPS ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE
UPDATED TO BLEND IN THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AS OF 230 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
MTNS. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO EXISTED ACROSS THE LAKE LANDS...WITH
WESTBOUND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BAND OF SBCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS...WITH WEAK CAPE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. AT 2 PM... SFC OBS INDICATE THAT A
WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS...NEARLY
STATIONARY. AS ARTHUR TRACK NORTH OF THE SC/NC LINE...THE BOUNDARY
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THEIR EASTWARD MOTION. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD START OUT VERY SLOW...GSO SOUNDING STORM MOTION 230
AT 9 KTS. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AND CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE EAST. CAMS INDICATE THAT THE
BAND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD CLOSER TO SUNSET. I WILL ADJUST HIGH
CHC POP VALUES TO INDICATE THE FORECAST THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
STORMS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG COULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SVR TSRA WIND
EVENTS...GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR.

TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL AID
IN A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
IN FACT...AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE MID WEST...DEWPOINT
VALUES WILL DECREASE BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND FRI
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THU...IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS...A DRY CP HIGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW. IN FACT..,.DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH SAT AND THEN
ONLY SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SUN. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR FRI NIGHT WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ABOUT
A CATEGORY-PLUS ON SAT...AND 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON SUN. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH WINDS VEERING
TO LIGHT SE ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING
THAT BROAD EASTERN TROUGHINESS WILL SET UP MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME CONSENSUS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BY LATE
WEEK IN THE SE U.S. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COONVECTION
ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY...BUT WPC GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATINARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY
BECOME A PLAYER IN TRIGGERING CONVECTION. ALSO...WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IF THEY ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR
NOW... WILL FEATURE A DIURNAL TREND IN THE POPS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUDNERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AT
LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION WITH RESTRICITONS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY N WINDS...DRYING..AND VFR. MINOR WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT STRONGER GUSTS FRIDAY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT...AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY N WINDS WILL ENSUE SHORTLY. MET GUIDANCE FAVORS
A LIFR CIG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT....AND
ALL TAFS WILL BE VFR. MINOR GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH
BETTER GUSTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES BU KAND.

OUTLOOK...FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF TC ARTHUR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041615-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...COVERAGE GREATEST OVER NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO GENERATE BRIEF
BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

NCZ071-072-032330-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
644 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND WEST
CENTRAL CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUNTERSVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNC
CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HUNTERSVILLE...
  NORTHLAKE MALL...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3521 8069 3532 8099 3535 8097 3536 8092
      3537 8096 3536 8097 3537 8098 3539 8096
      3544 8096 3545 8094 3549 8095 3550 8093
      3543 8060

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

SCZ009-032315-
YORK-
647 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH
715 PM EDT...

AT 646 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LESSLIE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCK
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LESSLIE...
  CATAWBA...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3482 8089 3482 8107 3497 8107 3498 8088
      3495 8086 3484 8086

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROUTMAN                34.97N 82.44W
07/03/2014                   GREENVILLE         SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE
            TROUTMAN AREA.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROUTMAN                35.70N 80.89W
07/03/2014                   IREDELL            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE
            TROUTMAN AREA.

&&

ARK