Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN THROUGH THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND. EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN M-ONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
CARRYING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. QPF HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UP IN THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 230 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
MTNS. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO EXISTED ACROSS THE LAKE LANDS...WITH
WESTBOUND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BAND OF SBCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS...WITH WEAK CAPE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. AT 2 PM... SFC OBS INDICATE THAT A
WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS...NEARLY
STATIONARY. AS ARTHUR TRACK NORTH OF THE SC/NC LINE...THE BOUNDARY
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THEIR EASTWARD MOTION. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD START OUT VERY SLOW...GSO SOUNDING STORM MOTION 230
AT 9 KTS. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AND CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE EAST. CAMS INDICATE THAT THE
BAND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD CLOSER TO SUNSET. I WILL ADJUST HIGH
CHC POP VALUES TO INDICATE THE FORECAST THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
STORMS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG COULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SVR TSRA WIND
EVENTS...GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE I-77 CORRDIOR.

TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL AID
IN A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
IN FACT...AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE MID WEST...DEWPOINT
VALUES WILL DECREASE BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND FRI
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THU...IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS...A DRY CP HIGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NW. IN FACT..,.DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH SAT AND THEN
ONLY SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SUN. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR FRI NIGHT WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ABOUT
A CATEGORY-PLUS ON SAT...AND 2 OR 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON SUN. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH WINDS VEERING
TO LIGHT SE ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING
THAT BROAD EASTERN TROUGHINESS WILL SET UP MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME CONSENSUS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BY LATE
WEEK IN THE SE U.S. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COONVECTION
ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY...BUT WPC GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATINARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY
BECOME A PLAYER IN TRIGGERING CONVECTION. ALSO...WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IF THEY ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR
NOW... WILL FEATURE A DIURNAL TREND IN THE POPS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUDNERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AT
LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SCT CU AND SHRAS...POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT WEST AS ARTHUR PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE SC
COAST. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTION WILL TRACK MORE
EASTWARD AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST. IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINAL WILL
OCCUR AS NC FOOTHILLS SHRA AND TSRA PASSES BETWEEN
21Z-01Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
MORNING OF THE 4TH WILL REMAIN VFR WITH STEADY NNW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...COVERAGE GREATEST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. I WILL CARRY A VCTS OR TEMPO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT AVL/GMU/GSP/HKY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
MORNING OF THE 4TH WILL REMAIN VFR WITH STEADY NNW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS. KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
POSSIBLE WET SOIL.

OUTLOOK...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF TC ARTHUR. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041615-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1201 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...COVERAGE GREATEST OVER NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO GENERATE BRIEF
BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED

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