Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
925 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW INLAND ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN MASON COUNTY WITH THE MORE SOLID
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE. FURTHER SOUTH THE
LINE IS WEAKER BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS SECTION FILLING IN WITH
VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS AND WE EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
LINE MOVES EAST WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DOWNBURST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES AND HODOGRAPHS STILL SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

DESPITE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THE
FLOODING RISK AT THIS POINT APPEARS MITIGATED BY RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. A SECOND LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS NOT SHOWN ON THE CURRENT HRRR SO EVOLUTION OF
THIS CONVECTION IS HARD TO FORECAST UNTIL IT GETS PICKED UP IN
FUTURE RUNS BUT WE WILL ASSUME IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN
EXPECTED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ALL EYES ON STORMS OVER IOWA/NEBRASKA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AND HOW
THEY MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG
LASTING STORMS WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET
OF UP TO 70 KNOTS NUDGES INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING KEEPING
ELEVATED OUR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND STORMS IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.

INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INTO THE NIGHT SUPPORTS STORM MAINTENANCE
IN LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTER PART OF THE STATE
THOUGH ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
GETTING PAST PEAK HEATING AND WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE
STORMS WORK IN COULD HELP TO LIMIT HOW STRONG STORMS ARE WHEN THEY
REACH LOWER MICHIGAN.

CURRENT TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD SUGGEST THAT 8PM WOULD BE THE
EARLIEST THE MAIN STORMS WOULD ARRIVE AND QUITE POSSIBLY AFTER 10PM.
MODELS FAVOR THE LATER TIMING...BUT TYPICALLY THESE TYPE OF STORMS
MOVE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...SO 8PM COULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING
TIME FOR STORMS APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT OF STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...MEANING THEY SHOULD MOVE OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY. STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
FOLKS TYPICALLY GO TO SLEEP FOR THE NIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT...A PRETTY QUIET REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ONLY A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70 BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS SW
LOWER MICHIGAN. WE WILL SEE THE MID WEEK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA ON THU. WE WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THU RIGHT ON INTO SUN. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
MOVE WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH JUST OFF OF THE EAST U.S. COAST. COOL
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR INITIALLY IN THE 70S WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY SUN.

WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA LATE SUN AND INTO MON. ONCE THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC STEERS OUT TO SEA...THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO
SHIFT EAST AND THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THE CHC OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

CONVECTION HAS ACCELERATED AND IS TRACKING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS. THUS
THE TAFS FEATURE A SOONER ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS. THIS ALSO MEANS
THE LINE MOVES OUT QUICKER. WHILE LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS
FORECASTED LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY DOES PERSIST...THUS I
FEATURED VCTS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS LIKELY WITH THE
ONSET OF THIS INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

WINDS AND WAVES TO POSE HAZARDS TO SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH GOERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND QUICK RISES ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS. TRAINING OF STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THIS EVENING...SO RISES ON LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011900-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING. THIS LINE
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND REACH THE U.S.-127 BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF STORM
DAMAGE...HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LMZ844>849-011900-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS AND BOATERS ON LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF STORM
DAMAGE...HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

NJJ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>