Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1102 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 3 PM MDT (4PM CDT).
THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL BEING A THREAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY STORMS. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WILD HORSE TO SHARON SPRINGS TO GOVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH
SOCIAL MEDIA OR OVER THE PHONE ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             12 N GOODLAND           39.52N 101.71W
08/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E OAKLEY              39.13N 100.78W
08/22/2014  M60 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRINNELL                39.12N 100.63W
08/22/2014  E70 MPH          GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 SSE WHEELER          39.61N 101.67W
08/22/2014                   CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            WINDS BLEW OUT WINDOWS OF RESIDENCE.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE GOVE              38.93N 100.40W
08/22/2014  M56 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

&&

024