Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1102 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 3 PM MDT (4PM CDT).
THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL BEING A THREAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY STORMS. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WILD HORSE TO SHARON SPRINGS TO GOVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH
SOCIAL MEDIA OR OVER THE PHONE ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

COZ091-092-KSZ013-222015-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-SHERMAN KS-
202 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEYENNE...SOUTHEASTERN
KIT CARSON AND WEST CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 202 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF BURLINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 426 AND 449.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 170 AND 191.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3905 10226 3904 10258 3935 10247 3936 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 192DEG 26KT 3920 10229

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             KIT CARSON              38.76N 102.80W
08/22/2014  E1.25 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ALSO RECEIVED 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

&&

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

COZ091-222045-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
219 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 219 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BETHUNE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 424 AND 444.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 10228 3909 10259 3935 10251 3937 10211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 196DEG 24KT 3920 10237

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             2 WSW BURLINGTON        39.29N 102.31W
08/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED VIA MPING.

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

KSZ003-004-015-222215-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-SHERIDAN KS-
435 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN...EASTERN
DECATUR AND WEST CENTRAL NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 435 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DRESDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOXIE...SELDEN...NORCATUR...JENNINGS...CLAYTON...DRESDEN...KANONA...
REAGER AND LEOVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3933 10045 3955 10063 4000 10033 3983 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 210DEG 24KT 3961 10041

MBULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
338 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              39.31N 102.27W
08/22/2014  E0.88 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

BRB