Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW LOW STRATUS OR
CUMULUS OVER MOST OF NEBRASKA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVER UTAH.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS
BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA. A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO OAKLEY
THEN SOUTH TO NEAR LEOTI.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL NEAR
HIGHWAY 40. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT REMAIN NEAR THE KS/NE STATE LINE UNTIL THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CINH DECLINES
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGHER DEW POINTS POOL ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WITH A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE TRI-STATE
AREA FROM THE WEST...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO FIRST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
SPREAD EAST...WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
DUE TO SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000-3000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-50KTS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH LARGE HAIL OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-70. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 15KTS.

THIS EVENING THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS IT DOES
SO STRONG/DEEP 700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT. SINCE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND IT AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL
PEAK BY MID EVENING AS DISCRETE STORMS MERGE INTO A LARGER SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
50 MPH WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING DUE TO RAPID
PRESSURE RISE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE COOLER AIR MIXING DOWN WINDS
APPROACHING 50KTS. DUE TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE
500MB TROUGH. AT 850MB A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN IT SHIFTS EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...BECOMING BREEZY OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD RIDING AHEAD
OF THIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL HELP BRING VERY
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHING THE
FLOW THAT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT
IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
TRANSITION EASTWARD. THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WITH PRECLUDE
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND EVENTUALLY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
END COMPLETING AS SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE CWA BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN OVER OUR CWA (TD VALUES POSSIBLY MIXING TO MID TEENS OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA). DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 100F.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...FIRST PACIFIC NW TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD FORCING ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEER COULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO OUR CWA BOTH DAYS. BETTER COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE ARE JUST QUESTIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION AND FINER DETAILS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THERE IS LESS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS ON THESE
PERIODS...THOUGH OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR VERY LOW PRECIP
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH EITHER RIDING OR A RETURN TO SW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
UNSTABLE. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STORMS AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. IF A STORM HAPPENS TO GO
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL IT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL
END AROUND MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

CURRENT THOUGHTS FROM PREVIOUS COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS IS THAT
FUELS ARE STILL UNFAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH...SO UNLESS
SOMETHING CHANGES FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT PLANNED. AT THE
SAME TIME IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT RH AND WIND WILL LIKELY REACH
CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70). A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND EVEN CONSERVATIVE MIXING
WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUELS...AS FORECAST
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WOULD NORMALLY REQUIRE A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1044 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014 /1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR
FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM CDT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE
HAIL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED BY PHONE OR
THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
06/14/2014  M70 MPH          LOGAN              KS   AWOS

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
827 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
06/14/2014  M60 MPH          THOMAS             KS   AWOS

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
828 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S DANBURY             39.98N 100.40W
06/14/2014  M67.00 MPH       DECATUR            KS   MESONET

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N ATWOOD              39.87N 101.04W
06/14/2014  M89 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   MESONET

&&

024

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