Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE KANSAS/
NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BUT SOME CUMULUS HAVE BEEN FORMING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE A VERY DISTINCT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WHILE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WAS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS FOR WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY AREA...BUT WILL
IT BE FURTHER NORTHWEST OR FURTHER SOUTHEAST? THE LATEST SATELLITE
SHOWS COME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CURRENT LOCATION WHICH IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AS THE STORMS DEVELOP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND WILL HELP TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING BETTER. THE
HRRR AND 4KM WRF BOTH IMPLY THERE WILL BE SOME BACK BUILDING WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS EVENING
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...BUT
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB CONTINUE TO
COOL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MID DAY ON MONDAY THE TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE AROUND ZERO TO -2 DEG C.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO
WATCH TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED INTO THE
AREA IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THERE IS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

A SEASONABLY COOL WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE REGION. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. WEAK RIDGING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE BY NEXT
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME RAIN AROUND AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH LIFR
FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
122030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
OR GREATER AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THESE INTENSE STORMS FAVOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO OSCEOLA IN NEBRASKA.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOWLAND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI/JCB

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