Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN A BETTER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A BROAD TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL UTAH SLIDING EAST INTO COLORADO. ANOTHER WAVE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SOUTHERN WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONNECTED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS LYING JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA. THE BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WAS POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA COMPARED TO LOWER 40S
IN THE PANHANDLE. THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE ACROSS OUR CWA AT 19Z
WAS ABOUT 10 DEG F FROM EAST TO WEST.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
CAPES ARE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE AND CIN IS NIL. JUST DONT SEE A LOT
OF INGREDIENTS TO KICK OFF STORMS IN OUR CWA WITH MID LEVEL
FORCING STILL WELL UPSTREAM AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL EAST. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT SEVERAL MESO-SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX
HEATING. THIS TREND NOT EVIDENT IN ALL MESO-SCALE MODELS HOWEVER
AS THE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE HOP-WRF ENSEMBLE KEEPING IT DRY OVER US
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WILL MOST LIKELY STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ANYTHING DOES POP...IT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN INCREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ABOVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORCING LOOKS
GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS. THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WIND...AND OMEGA SHOW THE BEST FORCING OVER THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z WITH OMEGA VALUES BETWEEN 5-8 UBARS/SEC AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. AN ISENTROPIC PLAN VIEW PLOT DOES SHOW SOME
WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT BELIEVE THE BIGGER CONTRIBUTOR TO
THE OMEGA IS COMING FROM THE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE MODERATE RAIN AGAIN TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH. INSTABILITY IS
THERE BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO WE COULD GET THUNDER BUT STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE WAVE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE MORNING
BEFORE DRYING IT OUT WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH W/NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING TO BUILD
IN BEHIND A PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING EAST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. THE SFC PATTERN DURING THE
THURSDAY EVENING HOURS IN ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SITTING IN BETWEEN
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND NW OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION RIGHT AWAY...BUT ONE OF THE CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHOWERS...AFFECTING THE AREA NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WHAT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY BY A FEW MODELS HAS
GAINED TRACTION...WITH MORE SUPPORT SHOWING THIS PRECIP
POTENTIAL...DRIVEN BY THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 140-ISH KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ND TOWARD MN. ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA NEAR
SUNRISE...SO KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DRY.

ACCOMPANYING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE A REINFORCING
SFC COLD FRONT...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND GUSTY
NW WINDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SKY COVER DIMINISHING
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S /ANOTHER DROP FROM THE ONE
MADE YESTERDAY/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL UP NEAR
750MB...TAPPING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN SPEEDS
PICKING UP INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL NOT MAKE FRIDAY THE MOST PLEASANT OF
DAYS...WITH HIGHS TRENDED DOWN A TOUCH MORE...RANGING FROM THE MID
50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN NC KS.

AS WE GET INTO THE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING HOURS...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH /BUT NOT LOOKING TO GO COMPLETELY CALM AT THIS POINT/
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOOKS
TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNRISE SAT. WITH THE
TAPERING WINDS...EXPECTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER AIR
MASS...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
LOWS...WHICH STILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOOKS TO BE
THE FIRST CHANCE AT MORE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FROST...WITH THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF HITTING THE FREEZING MARK.

LOOKING TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...OVERALL FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED. BY 12Z
SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND RIDGING
EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL THERE DOESNT LOOK TO BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THAT PATTERN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING PRIMARILY N/NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH
OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH TO HAVE THE CWA BE AFFECTED BY SOME SMALL
CHANCES /SUNDAY NIGHT?/. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE LATE THIS WEEK STARTS
MAKING A BETTER PUSH EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECTING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 GOING FOR TEMPS SAT...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES OVER COLORADO APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA
OR TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING
FROM THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFT 02/06-02/08Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...BROAD BRUSHED
THE FORECAST WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT
02/16Z...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI

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