Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SVR WX WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH SPC AT 255 PM AND HAS POSTED.

NOT MUCH TIME FOR A FULL AFD DUE TO ON-GOING TSTMS AND PREP FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

MULTICELL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PREVALENT OVER VALLEY/GREELEY/NANCE
COUNTIES SINCE 8 AM. WHILE HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN THREAT...THE
GROWING CONCERN IS THESE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND
THREATEN WIND DAMAGE AS WELL.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...
INCLUDING THE OUTFLOW FROM THE ON-GOING ACTIVITY...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES AND THE INVERTED TROF OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING /CURRENTLY OVER ERN
WY-CO/. THIS TROF WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH NUMEROUS
CELL MERGERS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE LINES EXPECTED.

MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY 1000-2500 J/KG WITH HIGHEST VALUES S AND W OF
THE ON-GOING ACTIVITY. WINDS ALOFT AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE.

WE EXPECT ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS TO MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AND BE
E OF THE REGION SUN MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LITTLE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE SUN AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WEAKENS TO UNDER 20 KTS OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADING
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING OMEGA...AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...COULD THEN PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT... ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PRESENTING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM AROUND 10/01Z-10/04Z. COULD
SEE BRIEFLY LOWER CATEGORIES...BUT WILL WAIT TO AMEND TAF IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND FURTHER DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION TO ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW ONCE THE STORMS PASS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
319 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
102030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
319 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH 10 PM...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD MERGE AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AS
ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OR LINES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DONE BY MIDNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK.

SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE FRIDAY EVENING. WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN REDEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB/BRYANT

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