Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
348 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WAVE PUNCHING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TRIGGERING A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. TIMING OF THE
LINE SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 6AM MDT.

UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY...THEN ROTATE INTO MANITOBA BY SATURDAY.
THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT PROMPTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH UNSTABLE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DEEP STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE WEEKEND. EBERT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE REGION AND
SKIRTING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM AS SOMEWHAT WEAK
UPPER FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF AN ONSHORE PROGRESSING TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. AS OF CURRENT MODEL RUNS...A SLOW
WARM UP WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 90S
POPPING IN AS WELL.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...WENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION AS MOST MODELS ARENT
PUTTING OUT MUCH IN TERMS OF QPF. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO RUN THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
POPS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO BE FAST MOVING AND DRY. TRYING TO
PINPOINT SHORTWAVE DRIVEN PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM IS DIFFICULT
ATTM WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOT SHOWING ANY SIMILARITIES WITH
QPF PLACEMENT. AGAIN WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BARNWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY HAPPEN TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.
GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
AND SOUTH OF THE CMR. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
WETTING RAINS AND EXPECTED HUMIDITY IN THE 20S WILL LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELSEWHERE TODAY. COOLER BUT WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MTZ018>020-023>027-062-241000-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016-017-021-022-059>061-241000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND
DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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