Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THAN
RECENT PAST.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR JULY STANDARDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE AREA. THIS SET-UP IS ALLOWING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY (MAINLY AFTERNOON).
MODELS ARE THROWING OUT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF WHEN AND WHERE THESE
EVENTS WILL HAPPEN SPECIFICALLY BUT STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SW SASK...SO SW ZONES MAY ESCAPE THIS ONE.

ON THURSDAY...STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN PROBABLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THEN MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE STORMS OVER THE NE ZONES LOOK BEST TO BE SEVERE (LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE BEST THREATS). UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING INTO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASK. CLOUDY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY OVER SASK WITH WINDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN MT. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MODELS SHOWING A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH RISING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
MID- WEEK WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE CALM AND BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SPREAD A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. WAS NOT EVEN CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS TO MENTION SPRINKLES IN THE GRIDS...SO KEPT POPS HIGH SILENT
FOR NOW.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONE DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT AS THE GFS WANTS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDE UP AND AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE THROUGH OUR
CWA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH I INCLUDED IN THE NAME OF COLLABORATION...BUT
AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS LACKING... IT MAY SIMPLY RESULT IN A FEW
SPRINKLES. WOULD BE GOOD TO FOLLOW SUBSEQUENT TRENDS TO MORE
CLOSELY ADJUST THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT
10 TO 20 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING.
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING...PROMPTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 134 THROUGH 137.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ134>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MTZ018>020-023>027-062-241000-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016-017-021-022-059>061-241000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
846 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND
DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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