Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
207 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIFT UPSTREAM OF A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MOIST ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MORE SEVERE ACTIVITY IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE INSTABILITY...MOIST
ADVECTION...AND SURFACE HEATING FROM PARTLY CLEAR SKIES...ARE
BETTER.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL KEEP ELEVATED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
CONFINED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL REMOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN A HALF WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND AN
INCH. FROPA SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
10 TO 20KTS RANGE...SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY
AFTER IT.  MARTIN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...NO CHANGES MADE.
GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...QUASI ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SHALLOW TROF LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SHORTWAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

SLIGHT RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
CUT OFF LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY...OPENING REGION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SPINNING UP A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER PERIOD POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFERING MORE ON THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF THIS WAVE BUT SHOULD HAVE ADDITIONAL STORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING EXCELLENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. EXPECT
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SOME BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING UNDER ONGOING PRECIPITATION.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW AND MID LEVEL CUMULIFORM CLOUDS. VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING...MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS...GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 10-20KTS...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
151 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

MTZ016>027-059>062-011100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
151 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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