Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...RETURN OF IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR AND DROP BELOW 10
KTS THIS EVENING. TWO DRYLINES CURRENTLY BISECT TARRANT COUNTY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KFTW AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT KAFW. EXPECT
THE WINDS AT THESE TWO SITES TO RETURN TO A SOUTH DIRECTION THIS
EVENING AS THE DRYLINES RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG IF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING WEST OF THE TAF
SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CIGS RETURNING TO THE
AIRPORTS BUT WILL PUSH THE RETURN TIME BACK TO AROUND 09Z. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND A VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE STILL
IN PLACE...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH BASES BETWEEN 400-1000 FEET.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH 3-5SM BR. CEILINGS WILL
START TO LIFT LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AND LIKELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTS A THUNDER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT. SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE AIRPORTS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AROUND 22Z AND KACT CLOSER TO 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH 00Z...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS FOLLOWING ALONG A SIMILAR PATH BENEATH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE RESULTING FLOW IS SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. BOTH THE FRONT AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ANY SURFACE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DRYLINE...WHICH WAS
ENCROACHING ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WELL
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL RESIDE.
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOW DUE TO VEERING SURFACE WINDS AND A
LINGERING CAP OVERHEAD...CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ENSURES THAT
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
AND WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY AS WELL. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BOTH SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
PLACE...AND ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS / 1 INCH OR GREATER
PWATS / WILL BE LOCATED. THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
OF A QUESTION MARK...WITH NAM12 BEING AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS MUCH
MORE PASSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER COVERAGE THAN TODAY WOULD MAKE SENSE BASED
ON THE ADDITION OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BE NEGATED THOUGH IF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...LEAVING US IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGION BY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 40 POPS IN THE
EAST ZONES FOR FRIDAY...LOWERING TO 20 IN THE CENTRAL ZONES
INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...BRINGING
UPPER RIDGING...WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND NICE WEATHER TO NORTH
TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. PLENTIFUL SUN WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING NIGHT TIME LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  79  48  76  49 /  20  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              59  82  49  77  48 /  20  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             60  76  45  73  45 /  40  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  77  45  75  44 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  46  75  45 /  20  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  49  76  50 /  20  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           60  80  47  75  46 /  30  30  20   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  81  49  76  47 /  30  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            60  82  50  78  48 /  20  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  80  45  77  44 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/69

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