Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
CAUSED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD EASTWARD...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGH
AND THERE IS BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN CAPE OF 2000-3000J/KG. A COLD FRONT AT 3 PM HAS
REACHED A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT SURFACE
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING...AND THIS WAS WIPING OUT SURFACE
INSTABILITY. STILL A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ZONES. WILL CLEAR THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH
BEFORE THE 4 PM NEWS CYCLE. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT NOTE THAT FIRST PERIOD POPS ARE LOW SINCE THEY
START AT 7 PM WHEN THIS EVENT SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CWA.

PATCHY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
BY DAYBREAK. NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL RESULT IN MODEST
COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S JUST ABOUT AREA
WIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S...LIGHT WINDS...AND SUNNY SKIES.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL LAG BEHIND. THIS WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND RH DROPS INTO THE 20S.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE LOCKED INTO A
PATTERN THAT PROVIDES SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
HERE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SPEND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IN OUR REGION...MOVING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND SLOSHING BACK TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AND THEREFORE THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL BE CAPPED AT TIMES. THE LONG STORY
SHORT IS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION...SOME
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...OVER THE CWA FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRUST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
PARTICULARS OF WHICH AREAS AND DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR CONVECTION
SINCE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
BREAKING THE CAP. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY AS IT
APPEARS THE CAP WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG TO BREAK. FOR TUESDAY HAVE
THE ENTIRE AREA IN 20 PERCENT WITH ONLY A FEW MODELS SHOWING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING QPF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN SET AT 30 PERCENT FOR THIS DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY RESULT IN
THE DRYLINE HEADING EAST OF I-35 SO WILL SHOW 20 POPS WEST OF I-35
AND 30 POPS TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.
TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS
DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  75  47  81  56 /   5   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              48  75  44  78  55 /  10   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             45  71  42  76  50 /  20   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            42  74  43  81  56 /   5   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  74  39  79  53 /  10   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            47  75  48  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           47  73  43  77  53 /  20   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         50  74  46  77  55 /  20   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            49  75  44  78  54 /  20   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     43  75  43  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             BAILEY                  33.43N  96.17W
03/28/2014  E1.00 INCH       FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             VENUS                   32.43N  97.12W
03/28/2014  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             RED OAK                 32.52N  96.80W
03/28/2014  E0.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             BEN ARNOLD              30.97N  96.97W
03/28/2014  E1.00 INCH       MILAM              TX   PUBLIC