Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  60   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  30   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  50   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  60   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  20   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO HILLSBORO...TO TERRELL. THE ACTIVITY
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO GLEN
ROSE...TO MUENSTER.

25

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ156-212145-
LAMPASAS TX-
418 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAMPASAS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAMPASAS.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3120 9857 3125 9854 3146 9818 3107 9790
      3104 9792 3103 9844 3107 9849 3108 9846
      3111 9846 3112 9850 3110 9853 3112 9855
      3116 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 285DEG 15KT 3121 9809

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
422 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ134-212145-
ELLIS TX-
422 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RED OAK...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ENNIS...FERRIS...OAK LEAF...
OVILLA...PALMER AND RED OAK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3229 9661 3248 9696 3255 9693 3255 9653
      3253 9651 3252 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 289DEG 19KT 3249 9685

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ159-212200-
MCLENNAN TX-
430 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MCLENNAN COUNTY

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCGREGOR...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELLMEAD...BEVERLY HILLS...
BRUCEVILLE-EDDY...CRAWFORD...HALLSBURG...HEWITT...LACY-LAKEVIEW...
LORENA...MART...MCGREGOR...MOODY...NORTHCREST...RIESEL...ROBINSON...
WACO...WEST AND WOODWAY.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3133 9743 3159 9760 3186 9704 3152 9681
      3124 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 269DEG 22KT 3160 9747

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ134-212215-
ELLIS TX-
442 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY

AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RED OAK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FERRIS...OAK LEAF...PALMER
AND RED OAK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. HALF INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR RED OAK.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3227 9650 3249 9688 3255 9686 3255 9653
      3253 9651 3248 9651 3244 9648 3241 9644
      3235 9645 3233 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 291DEG 21KT 3249 9678

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ157-212215-
CORYELL TX-
445 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORT GATES...GATESVILLE AND
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3131 9798 3147 9793 3148 9753 3132 9742
      3131 9744 3120 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 284DEG 19KT 3136 9785