Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  60   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  30   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  50   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  60   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  20   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO HILLSBORO...TO TERRELL. THE ACTIVITY
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO GLEN
ROSE...TO MUENSTER.

25

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TXZ156-212145-
LAMPASAS TX-
418 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAMPASAS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAMPASAS.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3120 9857 3125 9854 3146 9818 3107 9790
      3104 9792 3103 9844 3107 9849 3108 9846
      3111 9846 3112 9850 3110 9853 3112 9855
      3116 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 285DEG 15KT 3121 9809