Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MVFR STRATUS WAS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE DFW AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ON SATELLITE DUE TO ALL
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS
SINCE MOVED EAST OF AREA AIRPORTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING...SO
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS WHICH HAD STRATUS
LIFTING AT 16Z.

AT THIS TIME LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS ACTUALLY VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
TODAY...BUT THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR STORMS NEAR AREA
TAF SITES IS LOCATING A SOURCE OF LIFT. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE/DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS OUT...MAY HAVE TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREA TAF SITES DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LIFT FOR STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WITH SO MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT SOURCES
OF LIFT WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH TIME WE
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO SEE WHAT BOUNDARIES ARE LEFT OVER AND HOW THAT
MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST FOR STORMS NEAR AREA TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.

THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.

IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  95  73  92 /  40  10  10   5  10
WACO, TX              90  70  93  70  91 /  30  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  92  69  88 /  40  20  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            89  69  94  70  92 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          88  69  94  69  91 /  40  20  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            90  73  95  73  92 /  40  10  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           88  72  93  72  91 /  50  10  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  70  93  71  91 /  50  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  69  93  69  91 /  30  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  67  96  69  93 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
717 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINING EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

FOR THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO REDEVELOP
OR CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES IS LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS
MUCH SMALLER THAN THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ105-061200-
HUNT TX-
628 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HUNT COUNTY

AT 628 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAMPBELL...CELESTE AND
GREENVILLE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3316 9586 3306 9586 3298 9592 3298 9594
      3297 9595 3296 9596 3316 9630 3331 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 302DEG 20KT 3319 9615

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ122-135-061245-
HENDERSON TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
643 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HENDERSON COUNTY
  VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 642 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CANTON TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CANTON...EDOM...GRAND
SALINE...VAN...ATHENS...BERRYVILLE...BROWNSBORO...CANEY CITY...
CHANDLER...COFFEE CITY...ENCHANTED OAKS...EUSTACE...GUN BARREL
CITY...MALAKOFF...SEVEN POINTS...TOOL...TRINIDAD AND PURTIS CREEK
STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PENNY-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3208 9543 3201 9605 3208 9607 3209 9612
      3215 9610 3217 9618 3220 9616 3226 9628
      3230 9630 3236 9644 3236 9608 3269 9606
      3267 9560 3248 9559 3235 9546 3227 9545
      3223 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 277DEG 20KT 3247 9599 3219 9614

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ104-061230-
COLLIN TX-
655 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COLLIN COUNTY

AT 654 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...FAIRVIEW...
FARMERSVILLE...LOWRY CROSSING...LUCAS...MCKINNEY...PRINCETON AND
WYLIE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
PENNY-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE FROM
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3327 9630 3299 9630 3298 9631 3298 9647
      3298 9648 3330 9679 3340 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 306DEG 20KT 3328 9659

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             ROCKWALL                32.93N  96.45W
10/06/2014  E1.00 INCH       ROCKWALL           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER HAIL IN ROCKWALL.

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