Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.

THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.

IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
A COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING
HI RES SOLUTIONS...HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SHOWING ANY RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OKLAHOMA
CONVECTION WILL REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM 09 TO 12Z AND IN WACO FROM 11 TO 15Z.

ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. KFWS VAD SHOWS A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH WACO BETWEEN 08 AND
09Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  95  73  92 /  40  10  10   5  10
WACO, TX              90  70  93  70  91 /  30  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             85  68  92  69  88 /  40  20  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            89  69  94  70  92 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          88  69  94  69  91 /  40  20  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            90  73  95  73  92 /  40  10  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           88  72  93  72  91 /  50  10  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  70  93  71  91 /  50  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  69  93  69  91 /  30  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  67  96  69  93 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

69/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL POSING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOME OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MONDAY MORNING AND IN FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ094-095-060845-
FANNIN TX-LAMAR TX-
312 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FANNIN COUNTY
  LAMAR COUNTY

AT 312 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF BONHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PARIS...BAILEY...BONHAM...
DODD CITY...ECTOR...HONEY GROVE...LEONARD AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3391 9554 3389 9554 3388 9547 3353 9539
      3348 9557 3349 9578 3346 9586 3340 9588
      3336 9638 3350 9639 3384 9614 3385 9601
      3388 9600 3387 9595 3389 9593 3385 9585
      3387 9581 3385 9577 3390 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 294DEG 33KT 3375 9610

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

TXZ093-094-060900-
FANNIN TX-GRAYSON TX-
334 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL FANNIN COUNTY
  EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 334 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF DENISON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELLS...TOM BEAN...
WHITEWRIGHT...BONHAM...ECTOR...SAVOY AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3370 9635 3371 9631 3375 9631 3376 9630
      3356 9606 3341 9645 3374 9657 3378 9651
      3379 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 324DEG 22KT 3371 9642

CAVANAUGH

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