Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WET SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS AS WELL.

THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER TWO SEPARATE
REGIMES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE BEING AIDED BY LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 2500
J/KG. STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MORE LIKELY BY 9/10 PM.

ON THURSDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH TROUGHING
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKNESS ALOFT...RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. WEAK RIDGING MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE REGION SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING/WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT 20-30 POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
STILL GRAZING THE REGION...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ALSO
KEEP THE 20 POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION BUT BEST
CHANCES MAY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS DRY FOR NOW WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL PROVIDE LIFT WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY HEATING HAS SPAWNED SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
TRACON AREA...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VCTS FROM 1830Z
THROUGH 22Z. AFTER 22Z...BELIEVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE HELPED STABILIZE THE AIRMASS A BIT. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
ON STATION IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO FOR LIMITED VSBY/TSRA BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MVFR
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT AROUND 9Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH ON TIMING
OR COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              71  85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             70  83  69  87  72 /  50  30  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            71  86  71  89  73 /  50  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  71  88  73 /  50  30  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            72  87  73  89  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  84  74  88  76 /  50  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  84  72  88  74 /  50  40  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  84  72  88  74 /  50  40  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  86  71  90  72 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/82

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