Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MCS THAT WAS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY
ARRIVED IN NORTH TEXAS...MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS POSE A SEVERE WIND...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THREAT WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT THAT
LIES NEAR A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO GRAHAM. THE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE MCS ARE QUICKLY GROWING TALL DUE TO THE LARGE CAPE VALUES UP
TO 3500 J/KG IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR EMANATING AWAY FROM THE STORMS AND
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE VERY PROMINENT SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND A RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER
THE REGION NOW WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS AGAIN FOR ANY IMPACTS TO
NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SAME
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE KEEP A WEAK
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOSTLY A GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

PREVIOUSLY THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN HOLDING OFF THE RIDGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...ADDED LOW POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STALL AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...IN THIS TYPE OF WEATHER
PATTERN...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST POPS AND TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY AS TRENDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENCE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OF COURSE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY
STARTING TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLOWLY WARMED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER METROPLEX WHERE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LAYING. MCS/MCV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND THUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF MCS. HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO BUMP TEMPO TIMING UP 2 HOURS FROM 22-0Z/5PM TO
7PM AS MOST LIKELY STORM WINDOW...BUT CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVERHEAD
AN AIRPORT WILL RESULT IN TSRA BEFORE THAT TEMPO WINDOW SO FURTHER
AMENDMENTS LIKELY BASED ON TRENDS. TR.92

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.

ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.

AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  91  75  89  74 /  80  30  20  30  10
WACO, TX              73  90  74  88  73 /  50  40  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             72  88  72  87  72 /  40  40  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            72  90  73  89  73 /  80  30  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  74  88  73 /  80  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  89  74 /  80  30  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  76  89  75 /  50  40  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  90  74  88  73 /  50  40  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  90  73  89  72 /  70  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ102-117-118-242145-
TARRANT TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PARKER COUNTY
  CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
BRIAR TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AZLE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF FOREST HILL...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RENO...SPRINGTOWN...WILLOW
PARK...AZLE...EDGECLIFF...EVERMAN...FOREST HILL...FORT WORTH...HALTOM
CITY...LAKE WORTH...LAKESIDE...PELICAN BAY...RICHLAND HILLS...RIVER
OAKS...SANSOM PARK...WESTWORTH...WHITE SETTLEMENT...BOONSVILLE...
COTTONDALE AND POOLVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3287 9741 3280 9716 3262 9729 3277 9771
      3300 9797 3300 9792 3306 9792 3315 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 248DEG 8KT 3298 9781 3280 9761
          3273 9724

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ145-242200-
HILL TX-
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL HILL COUNTY

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CARL'S CORNER AND ITASCA.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3223 9706 3207 9696 3201 9703 3205 9717
      3213 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 222DEG 7KT 3214 9704

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