Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Fort Worth, TX

050 
WWUS54 KFWD 242108
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXC363-367-242145-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-140624T2145Z/
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN PARKER AND NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A 
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 
15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  POOLVILLE AROUND 435 PM CDT...
  SPRINGTOWN AROUND 445 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3300 9820 3300 9773 3299 9764 3279 9765
      3286 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 272DEG 15KT 3295 9800

$$

322 
WWUS54 KFWD 242139
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
439 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXC363-367-242149-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-140624T2145Z/
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
439 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN PARKER AND
NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 445 PM CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3300 9820 3300 9773 3299 9764 3279 9765
      3286 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 272DEG 15KT 3295 9785

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MCS THAT WAS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY
ARRIVED IN NORTH TEXAS...MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS POSE A SEVERE WIND...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THREAT WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT THAT
LIES NEAR A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO GRAHAM. THE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE MCS ARE QUICKLY GROWING TALL DUE TO THE LARGE CAPE VALUES UP
TO 3500 J/KG IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR EMANATING AWAY FROM THE STORMS AND
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE VERY PROMINENT SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND A RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER
THE REGION NOW WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT
CAUSING THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS AGAIN FOR ANY IMPACTS TO
NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SAME
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE KEEP A WEAK
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOSTLY A GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

PREVIOUSLY THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND BUT MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN HOLDING OFF THE RIDGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...ADDED LOW POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STALL AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...IN THIS TYPE OF WEATHER
PATTERN...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST POPS AND TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY AS TRENDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENCE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OF COURSE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY
STARTING TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLOWLY WARMED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER METROPLEX WHERE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LAYING. MCS/MCV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND THUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF MCS. HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO BUMP TEMPO TIMING UP 2 HOURS FROM 22-0Z/5PM TO
7PM AS MOST LIKELY STORM WINDOW...BUT CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVERHEAD
AN AIRPORT WILL RESULT IN TSRA BEFORE THAT TEMPO WINDOW SO FURTHER
AMENDMENTS LIKELY BASED ON TRENDS. TR.92

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.

ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.

AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  91  75  89  74 /  80  30  20  30  10
WACO, TX              73  90  74  88  73 /  50  40  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             72  88  72  87  72 /  40  40  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            72  90  73  89  73 /  80  30  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  74  88  73 /  80  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  89  74 /  80  30  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  76  89  75 /  50  40  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  90  74  88  73 /  50  40  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  90  73  89  72 /  70  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ129-242045-
EASTLAND TX-
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CISCO...EASTLAND AND RANGER.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3252 9848 3250 9848 3236 9860
      3212 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 295DEG 21KT 3244 9895

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ100-101-242130-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES EAST OF
OLNEY TO 10 MILES EAST OF GRAHAM TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINERAL
WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRYSON...JACKSBORO AND
OLNEY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3341 9842 3346 9842 3347 9828 3300 9792
      3301 9842 3316 9843 3310 9864 3339 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 270DEG 9KT 3336 9847 3312 9839
          3301 9822

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ116-117-130-131-242100-
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN HOOD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN PARKER COUNTY

AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ABOUT 18 MILES NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE...AND AROUND LIPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIPAN AND MORGAN MILL.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3270 9820 3274 9797 3243 9784 3229 9819
      3249 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 232DEG 9KT 3247 9809

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ116-117-242145-
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  WESTERN PARKER COUNTY

AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MINERAL WELLS TO 5 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS TO 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GRAFORD...MINERAL WELLS...
COOL...WEATHERFORD...POOLVILLE AND MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO BETWEE 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3300 9831 3300 9774 3256 9775 3256 9806
      3251 9807 3251 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 270DEG 15KT 3300 9820 3283 9813
          3267 9828

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ129-130-141-242115-
EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-
344 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY
  EASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WINDS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EASTLAND COUNTY...AND INTO WESTERN ERATH AND NORTHWEST
COMANCHE COUNTIES.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORMAN...RISING STAR AND
HUCKABAY.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LAT...LON 3252 9853 3251 9849 3231 9825 3193 9882
      3207 9893 3207 9909 3209 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 311DEG 25KT 3223 9877

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
06/24/2014  M60 MPH          TARRANT            TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            KGKY ASOS MEASURED A 52 KT WIND