Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MANY CHALLENGES TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING AND WIND SHIFTS.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS 15-30 KTS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DFW METRO
AIRPORTS AND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WITH MIXING BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY. VFR WITH THUNDER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AT WACO...CAPPING INVERSION IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOLD ON TO JUST VCSH AND VFR THIS MORNING.

HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY HELPFUL WITH STORM OUTFLOW AND
EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING STORM
INITIATION. BEST GUESS IS FOR THE INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF DFW METRO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND DEPARTING BY EARLY
EVENING. STORM TIMING AT WACO APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CLEARING OUT BY MID EVENING.

WE WILL CARRY A LIGHT N/NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DFW METRO TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD STALL IN OR NEAR WACO OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT E/NE LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AS WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  71  87  72  92 /  40  50  10   5  10
WACO, TX              93  71  89  72  91 /  20  60  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  67  84  67  88 /  70  60  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            90  68  86  70  91 /  50  50  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          89  66  86  68  89 /  60  50  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            91  71  87  72  91 /  40  50  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           89  69  87  69  90 /  30  60  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  71  88  71  90 /  20  60  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  89  71  91 /  20  60  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  68  86  70  93 /  30  40   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
356 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS MORNING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THREATS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 70
MPH...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING AND BEYOND WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SHOULD END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

05/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
834 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ121-134-121400-
ELLIS TX-KAUFMAN TX-
834 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 834 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENNIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COTTONWOOD...GRAYS PRAIRIE
AND PALMER.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3236 9626 3236 9644 3235 9645 3233 9641
      3234 9638 3230 9644 3243 9668 3255 9660
      3255 9653 3257 9652 3247 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 298DEG 17KT 3247 9653

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
834 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ145-121400-
HILL TX-
834 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN HILL COUNTY

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3221 9736 3222 9731 3222 9728 3227 9708
      3208 9696 3193 9699 3210 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 284DEG 19KT 3217 9726