Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED WEST OF THE REGION
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DIMINISHED ON THE NORTHERN END AND THE
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF
SITES.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS CURRENTLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE
QUICKLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT CROSSES THE RED
RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER WOULD
REACH THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA AROUND 6 AM / 11Z. STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME BUT WE WILL INCLUDE
PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS IN THE 11-14Z TIME FOR THE
METROPLEX...THEN 13-15Z AT KACT.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IN TOW. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED MORNING CONVECTION. WE STILL
BELIEVE THAT EVEN IF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST WELL INTO THE MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
STILL HAVE TIME TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT SET OF FORECASTS WILL
INDICATE PREVAILING -TSRA FROM 21-01Z IN THE METRO AREA THEN
22-02Z AT KACT. THE FRONT MAY PULL UP STATIONARY BEFORE REACHING
KACT...SO WINDS AFTER 13/02Z WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST....WHILE WINDS IN THE METROPLEX WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  71  87  72  92 /  40  50  10   5  10
WACO, TX              93  71  89  72  91 /  20  60  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  67  84  67  88 /  70  60  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            90  68  86  70  91 /  50  50  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          89  66  86  68  89 /  60  50  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            91  71  87  72  91 /  40  50  10   5  10
TERRELL, TX           89  69  87  69  90 /  30  60  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  71  88  71  90 /  20  60  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  89  71  91 /  20  60  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  68  86  70  93 /  30  40   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
356 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS MORNING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THREATS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 70
MPH...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING AND BEYOND WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SHOULD END BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ100-101-120930-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
404 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 404 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
PENNY-SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9863 3340 9843 3347 9843 3348 9842
      3348 9839 3338 9808 3312 9824 3333 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 294DEG 26KT 3341 9849

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ091-092-121015-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
415 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 416 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
NOCONA TO 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF NOCONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BOWIE...NOCONA...ST. JO...
CALLISBURG...GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY...MUENSTER...FORESTBURG AND
STONEBURG.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3391 9759 3392 9748 3389 9744 3383 9744
      3383 9737 3389 9733 3387 9726 3392 9721
      3386 9716 3382 9720 3376 9718 3372 9711
      3386 9708 3387 9700 3395 9696 3358 9694
      3343 9728 3345 9782 3375 9798 3399 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 312DEG 24KT 3374 9781 3404 9739

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ101-121000-
JACK TX-
430 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  JACK COUNTY

AT 430 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE JACKSBORO.

PEA TO PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3322 9791 3303 9792 3300 9823 3300 9824
      3326 9840 3339 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 315DEG 29KT 3326 9825

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ093-121030-
GRAYSON TX-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 459 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DURANT TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITESBORO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BELLS...COLLINSVILLE...
DENISON...DORCHESTER...HOWE...KNOLLWOOD...POTTSBORO...SHERMAN...TOM
BEAN...WHITESBORO AND EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3389 9658 3384 9662 3382 9652 3378 9650
      3379 9642 3373 9637 3356 9638 3350 9650
      3349 9692 3385 9694 3388 9689 3386 9686
      3388 9679 3383 9676 3383 9673 3385 9670
      3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 341DEG 37KT 3402 9643 3373 9697

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ094-121045-
FANNIN TX-
520 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FANNIN COUNTY

AT 520 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25
MILES WEST OF HUGO TO 10 MILES EAST OF DENISON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...ECTOR...HONEY GROVE...SAVOY AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY PRECEDE THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
BY 20 MINUTES.

LAT...LON 3384 9584 3355 9585 3338 9612 3346 9638
      3371 9638 3370 9633 3377 9629 3376 9619
      3384 9615 3385 9601 3388 9600 3387 9595
      3388 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 315DEG 33KT 3400 9591 3370 9636