Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 7, 2014

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 7, 2014, 12:21 PM MST. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2014, 12:21 PM MST (19:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2014, 1:00 PM MST
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 5 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 6 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2100 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 7, 9:40 AM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 9:40 AM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS ACROSS NW AZ AND INTO SE AZ. NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS IS FROM THE E-SE...WITH WEAKER
STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS ZONE...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH READINGS TO A
MORE SEASONABLE VALUE OF 0.88 INCHES. INSTABILITY HAS ALSO DECREASED
AND THERE IS A MOIST MID LAYER OVERLYING A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

OVERALL...THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY. WITH THE
FASTER STORM MOTION TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS YAVAPAI...
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NRN AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES FROM 9-12KFT
AGL WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT NUMEROUS STORMS WEST OF LINE FROM KPGA-KSJN
AND WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST OF THIS LINE. STORM MOVEMENT FROM
SE TO NW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-080700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL FORCE MOST
STORMS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY.

THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS YAVAPAI...
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 7, 12:21 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1221 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ012-016-072000-
COCONINO AZ-
1221 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 100 PM MST

AT 1213 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EXCESS RUNOFF IN
NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND STREAMS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED IN AN AREA BETWEEN HAPPY
JACK...CLINTS WELL...EASTWARD TO THE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11117 3452 11153 3482 11149 3478 11077
      3433 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 150DEG 1KT 3455 11111

DB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 6:11 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		34 min
Jul 6, 6:29 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr
Jul 6, 6:55 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Gila, Navajo	3 hr
Jul 6, 9:14 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 7, 1:19 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		71 min
Jul 7, 1:38 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	82 min
Jul 7, 1:58 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 7, 2:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		29 min
Jul 7, 3:35 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 7, 4:34 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.