Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

688 
WGUS75 KFGZ 072125
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZC005-072300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140707T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
225 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 219 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER OAK CREEK AND
THE SLIDE FIRE BURN AREA. RADAR AND RAIN GAGES INDICATE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BURN AREA WITH 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH FALLING IN 15 TO 30 MINUTES. FARTHER SOUTH...ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO FALLING ON THE EAST SIDE
OF HIGHWAY 89A INCLUDING PUMP HOUSE WASH AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO 
INCREASED FLOWS IN OAK CREEK.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST FORK OF
OAK CREEK...STERLING CANYON...UPPER OAK CREEK CANYON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN WILL TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...ROCKSLIDES...
ASH AND DEBRIS FLOWS WITHIN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE SLIDE FIRE SCAR.
RESIDENCES AND RECREATIONAL FACILITIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF OAK CREEK
CANYON MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER...ROCK MATERIAL...ASH AND
DEBRIS.

GET AWAY FROM THE WATER. IF POSSIBLE...HEAD TOWARD STATE HIGHWAY
89A...OR GET TO HIGH GROUND EAST OF OAK CREEK.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS WARNING INCLUDE RESIDENCES AND
RECREATIONAL AREAS WEST OF OAK CREEK IN AND ADJACENT TO THE SLIDE
FIRE SCAR...PRIMARILY FROM SLIDE ROCK STATE PARK NORTHWARD TO THE
SWITCHBACKS ON HIGHWAY 89A.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 11177 3501 11185 3507 11183 3506 11171
      3495 11172 3495 11178

$$

DB

803 
WGUS75 KFGZ 072214
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZC005-072300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140707T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
314 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 304 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
RAINFALL HAD ENDED ACROSS UPPER OAK CREEK CANYON AND THE SLIDE FIRE
BURN SCAR. AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES INDICATED THAT BETWEEN ONE-THIRD
AND TWO-THIRDS INCH FELL IN 15 TO 30 MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE BURN SCAR...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES ON WEST FORK OAK CREEK AND STERLING
CANYON...WHILE THE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED IN THE AREAS JUST NORTH OF
SLIDE ROCK STATE PARK INCLUDING JUNIPINE AND PINE FLATS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS WARNING INCLUDE RESIDENCES AND
RECREATIONAL AREAS WEST OF OAK CREEK IN AND ADJACENT TO THE SLIDE
FIRE SCAR...PRIMARILY FROM SLIDE ROCK STATE PARK NORTHWARD TO THE
SWITCHBACKS ON HIGHWAY 89A.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 11177 3501 11185 3507 11183 3506 11171
      3495 11172 3495 11178

$$

DB

438 
WGUS75 KFGZ 072252
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZC005-072301-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140707T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
352 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR UPPER OAK CREEK CANYON AND THE SLIDE
FIRE BURN AREA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RAINFALL HAS ENDED AND
THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. SOME ELEVATED
STREAM FLOWS IN WEST FORK OAK CREEK AND UPPER OAK CREEK ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


LAT...LON 3498 11177 3501 11185 3507 11183 3506 11171
      3495 11172 3495 11178

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WAS A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS ACROSS NW AZ AND INTO SE AZ. NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS IS FROM THE E-SE...WITH WEAKER
STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS ZONE...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH READINGS TO A
MORE SEASONABLE VALUE OF 0.88 INCHES. INSTABILITY HAS ALSO DECREASED
AND THERE IS A MOIST MID LAYER OVERLYING A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

OVERALL...THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY. WITH THE
FASTER STORM MOTION TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS YAVAPAI...
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NRN AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES FROM 9-12KFT
AGL WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT NUMEROUS STORMS WEST OF LINE FROM KPGA-KSJN
AND WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST OF THIS LINE. STORM MOVEMENT FROM
SE TO NW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-080700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL FORCE MOST
STORMS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY.

THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS YAVAPAI...
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1221 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ012-016-072000-
COCONINO AZ-
1221 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 100 PM MST

AT 1213 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EXCESS RUNOFF IN
NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND STREAMS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED IN AN AREA BETWEEN HAPPY
JACK...CLINTS WELL...EASTWARD TO THE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11117 3452 11153 3482 11149 3478 11077
      3433 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 150DEG 1KT 3455 11111

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
119 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038-072130-
GILA AZ-YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
119 PM MST MON JUL 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 230 PM MST

AT 115 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL SLOW DOWN TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 10934 3372 10937 3370 10944 3369 10946
      3428 11253 3560 11244 3562 11144 3478 11067
      3405 10906 3377 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 126DEG 3KT 3451 11102

DB