Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 5, 2014Beltrami County, Marshall County, Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2014, 6:06 PM CDT for Beltrami County, Marshall County, Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 54 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2014, 6:06 PM CDT (23:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 6:10 PM CDT	HAIL 1	17 Ese Greenbush, MN	4ENE OF HOMOLKA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 792 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -214 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 721 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 332 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 336 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

616 
WUUS53 KFGF 052306
SVRFGF
MNC007-089-135-060000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0024.140705T2306Z-140706T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 559 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES EAST    
  OF GREENBUSH...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. AT 602 PM CDT...    
  PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENBUSH. 

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...PUBLIC.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WANNASKA AROUND 615 PM CDT.
  TORFIN AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  CASPERSON AROUND 630 PM CDT.
  SKIME AROUND 645 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HAYES LAKE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4859 9535 4831 9550 4857 9602 4873 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 302DEG 15KT 4861 9585

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ROGERS

2 follow-up statements

002 
WWUS53 KFGF 052325
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC007-089-135-060000-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140706T0000Z/
ROSEAU MN-BELTRAMI MN-MARSHALL MN-
625 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROSEAU
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASPERSON...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SKIME AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  HAYES LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4853 9594 4870 9574 4859 9535 4831 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 303DEG 17KT 4855 9571

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

VG

042 
WWUS53 KFGF 052343
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
643 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC007-089-135-060000-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140706T0000Z/
ROSEAU MN-BELTRAMI MN-MARSHALL MN-
643 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROSEAU 
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 638 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
SKIME...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. AT 610 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL 17 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GREENBUSH.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ROSEAU COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4846 9579 4867 9563 4859 9535 4831 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 303DEG 17KT 4846 9560

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

VG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 3:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 3:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.

SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT/TIMING REMAIN AT LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THUS CONTINUED TO USE VCTS IN TIME PERIODS WHEN BEST CHANCE
WILL BE. WEAK TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVE WILL
GIVE A LIGHT WIND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT A MORE
DEFINITE NORTHWEST WIND TAKING SHAPE AFTER 12Z SUN IN ERN ND/RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:17 AM CDT, 12 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ004-005-052300-
KITTSON MN-ROSEAU MN-
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROSEAU AND
NORTHEASTERN KITTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF HALLOCK...OR 37 MILES WEST OF
ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARIBOU AROUND 505 PM CDT.
LEO AROUND 555 PM CDT.
GREENBUSH...PINECREEK AND HAUG AROUND 600 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9585 4866 9612 4892 9669 4901 9661
      4901 9601 4900 9597 4901 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 300DEG 16KT 4899 9651

ROGERS

Local storm report, Jul 5, 5:53 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND GST     BADGER                  48.78N 96.02W
07/05/2014  E60 MPH          ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER NOTED VERY STRONG WINDS LIFTING SHINGLES

&&

TGRAFENA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 4:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Roseau	62 min
Jul 5, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	58 min
Jul 5, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.