Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Grand Forks, ND

901 
WWUS53 KFGF 052239
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC135-052315-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-140705T2315Z/
ROSEAU MN-
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ROSEAU
COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BADGER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TORFIN AND ROSEAU AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  WANNASKA AND MALUNG AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  PENCER AND CASPERSON AROUND 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4860 9609 4882 9609 4886 9560 4856 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 266DEG 17KT 4869 9593

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

ROGERS

928 
WWUS53 KFGF 052244
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNC135-052315-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-140705T2315Z/
ROSEAU MN-
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ROSEAU
COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 542 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BADGER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WANNASKA AND TORFIN AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  MALUNG AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  PENCER AND CASPERSON AROUND 615 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROSEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4860 9609 4882 9609 4886 9560 4856 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 266DEG 17KT 4869 9590

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.

SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT/TIMING REMAIN AT LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THUS CONTINUED TO USE VCTS IN TIME PERIODS WHEN BEST CHANCE
WILL BE. WEAK TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVE WILL
GIVE A LIGHT WIND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT A MORE
DEFINITE NORTHWEST WIND TAKING SHAPE AFTER 12Z SUN IN ERN ND/RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MNZ004-005-052300-
KITTSON MN-ROSEAU MN-
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROSEAU AND
NORTHEASTERN KITTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF HALLOCK...OR 37 MILES WEST OF
ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARIBOU AROUND 505 PM CDT.
LEO AROUND 555 PM CDT.
GREENBUSH...PINECREEK AND HAUG AROUND 600 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9585 4866 9612 4892 9669 4901 9661
      4901 9601 4900 9597 4901 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 300DEG 16KT 4899 9651

ROGERS