Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CONVECTION AND IF ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. A SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE VALLEY TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH PWATS FROM 1.50 TO
1.75 ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NARROW
AREA ALONG THE OCCLUSION FROM NEAR GFK THROUGH CKN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SFC INSTABILITY AND CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE THE THREAT OF A TORNADO NEAR THE BEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AREA JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AGAIN NEAR ANY SUNNY BREAKS.
THE BEST DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 40-45KT IS BEHIND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE COULD BE AN AREA WHERE THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAIRLY
WEAK...SO THAT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS. WILL ADD
SOME HEAVY RAIN MENTION MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD
FORCING WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND SEVERE THREAT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL BE
HEADED THIS WAY. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850MB
JET (WARM AIR ADVECTION) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY (09Z) ABOUT TO ENTER
SOUTH DAKOTA. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH THE SFC
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
WAVE). NOT SURE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IMPULSE MOVES INTO
CANADA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE VALLEY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE).

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY (WHERE 1-3 INCHES FELL OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS). MUCAPE ACROSS THIS AREA IS 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH PWATS 1.5
TO 1.8 INCHES. THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING APPEARS TO BE HEADED RIGHT
INTO THIS AREA...AND A QUICK 2-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.
INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...AND IF THE
CURRENT STORMS START TO SLOW DOWN...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING WITH THE
COMPLEX HEADED NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND IS LIKELY
THE MAIN THREAT WITH A 500MB JET STREAK OF NEAR 50 KNOTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY (MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS)...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL REMAIN STRONG.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON ACTUAL
INSTABILITY...WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...WE
SHALL SEE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS NOT ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS...BUT WITH TEMPS ALOFT
COOLER AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION DID NOT
SPEND MUCH TIME LOOKING AT DAYS 4 AND BEYOND. SOME MINOR
SHORTWAVES ROLLING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LOW
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER. FOR
THIS REASON AND WITH TIME CONSTRAINTS KEPT THE LOW POPS THAT THE
BLENDED MODEL GIVES US. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS (MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY)...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JR
AVIATION...TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
534 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-201300-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
534 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 S COOPERSTOWN         47.36N 98.12W
06/18/2014  M1.12 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE BRECKENRIDGE       46.23N 96.54W
06/18/2014  M1.69 INCH       WILKIN             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
725 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROTHSAY                 46.47N 96.29W
06/19/2014  M1.74 INCH       WILKIN             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
817 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE      46.24N 96.57W
06/19/2014                   WILKIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING OCCURRED IN BRECKENRIDGE
            PROPER. DITCHES...FIELDS AND FARM ACCESS ROADS WERE
            BRIEFLY FLOODED JUST SOUTH OF TOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 9.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             2 NE FORT RANSOM        46.55N 97.90W
06/18/2014  E1.25 INCH       RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH NUMEROUS NICKEL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED
            HAIL STONES. HAIL FELL OFF AND ON FOR A FEW MINUTES.

1115 PM     HAIL             2 W ENDERLIN            46.62N 97.64W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF SMALL BRANCHES AND LEAVES KNOCKED DOWN BY THE
            HAIL.

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N MOORHEAD            46.91N 96.76W
06/18/2014  M1.13 INCH       CLAY               MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL.

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 S COOPERSTOWN         47.36N 98.12W
06/18/2014  M1.12 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE BRECKENRIDGE       46.23N 96.54W
06/18/2014  M1.69 INCH       WILKIN             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL.

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MOORETON            46.21N 96.88W
06/18/2014  E2.40 INCH       RICHLAND           ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAHPETON                46.27N 96.61W
06/19/2014                   RICHLAND           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN
            AND A LOT OF STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING. STORM TOTAL.

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE      46.24N 96.57W
06/19/2014                   WILKIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING OCCURRED IN BRECKENRIDGE
            PROPER. DITCHES...FIELDS AND FARM ACCESS ROADS WERE
            BRIEFLY FLOODED JUST SOUTH OF TOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 9.

0724 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROTHSAY                 46.47N 96.29W
06/19/2014  M1.74 INCH       WILKIN             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

GGUST

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