Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS TN INTO AL IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE... COMBINED WITH ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS... NEAR 2 INCH PWS AND WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA... HAS HEIGHTENED THE
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY
NORTH GA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY.

HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BESIDES FLOODING...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN AT THAT POINT AS
EVEN ONLY A FEW STORMS ON RADAR COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

APPEARS VORT MAX REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUS...EXPECT AN ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE...BUT POSSIBLE TO SEE
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST IN FUTURE UPDATES. PW VALUES AGAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ONCE AGAIN STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE DIFFERENCE FOR TOMORROW IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVERAGE THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
THIS WOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY... AT LEAST INITIALLY.

BIG DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AGAIN TOMORROW. MET IS MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER TOMORROW WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND DRIER IN TERMS OF
POPS...BUT STILL PICKING UP ON CONVECTION. EVEN WITH CLOUDS...THINK
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND LOWER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD
COVERAGE DOES NOT IMPROVE AT ALL...HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW COULD END UP
BEING TOO WARM.

11

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GA SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH
GA ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A WEDGE OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR DRAINING DOWN FROM THE NE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY. IF VERIFIES... THIS WOULD SERVE TO DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST NORTH GA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. 39

.PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AN AXIS OF VORTICITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
AND NORTH GEORGIA.  A SURFACE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT TRAVERSES
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BUT
GENERALLY IN LINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ATWELL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2
INCHES AGAIN ON THURSDAY... WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014/
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. TIMING AT THE TAF SITES IS HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT BE CONTINUOUS DIRECTLY AT THE SITE.
WITH STORMS...WILL SEE VSBYS DECREASE TO AROUND 1SM BUT FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ALSO EXPECT VRB WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE DIMINISH...THEN CONCERN BECOMES LOW /IFR TO
MVFR/ CIGS IN THE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS...CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO EFFECTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  90  69  89 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         72  88  72  87 /  60  50  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     66  83  69  84 /  60  50  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  88  70  86 /  60  50  30  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  88 /  60  50  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  87  71  87 /  60  50  30  30
MACON           71  91  70  90 /  50  50  30  30
ROME            70  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  88  69  86 /  60  50  30  30
VIDALIA         72  91  73  90 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041300-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
128 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASHING FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVING... AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OR TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE GROUNDS ARE WET AND STREAMS ARE HIGH DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST
/ATLFFAFFC/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
437 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ033-044-045-055-032100-
437 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN DEKALB...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BROOKHAVEN TO FOREST PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS DEKALB...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BUCKHEAD...
BROOKHAVEN...DORAVILLE...CHAMBLEE...DUNWOODY...BOLTON...BANKHEAD...
CASCADE HEIGHTS...WEST END...SWEET AUBURN...ATLANTIC STATION...
LAKEWOOD PARK...CHASTAIN MEMORIAL PARK...PIEDMONT PARK AND GRANT
PARK-ZOO ATLANTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8451 3383 8445 3391 8445 3398 8438
      3395 8427 3392 8426 3388 8422 3365 8427
      3364 8428 3363 8427 3355 8428 3359 8452
      3371 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 346DEG 9KT 3387 8432 3377 8436
          3361 8439

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ033-034-044-045-055-032130-
500 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN DEKALB...GWINNETT...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHAMBLEE TO HAPEVILLE THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS DEKALB...GWINNETT...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EDGEWOOD...
CEDAR GROVE...MECHANICSVILLE...LA VISTA...KIRKWOOD...EAST LAKE...
PANTHERSVILLE...GRESHAM PARK...SCOTTDALE...AVONDALE ESTATES...
DECATUR...CLARKSTON...DRUID HILLS...DORAVILLE AND CHAMBLEE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8412 3372 8427 3361 8429 3361 8449
      3374 8449 3396 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 035DEG 2KT 3389 8432 3376 8438
          3367 8440

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE LA CROSSE         32.17N  84.23W
09/03/2014                   SCHLEY             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE FELL ONTO CANDYCANE LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400865

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
506 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ011-012-019-020-032200-
506 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS IN
BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS OBSERVED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARMUCHEE TO ADAIRSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO WINDS OF 40 MPH...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...FLOYD AND GORDON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND SHANNON...PINSON...EVERETT
SPRINGS...LAKE
MARVIN...PLAINVILLE...KINGSTON...OOSTANAULA...ADAIRSVILLE...SUGAR
VALLEY...CASSVILLE...CALHOUN...RESACA...FOLSOM...WHITE AND PINE LOG.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8513 3459 8506 3462 8506 3462 8493
      3463 8491 3461 8486 3461 8481 3458 8465
      3436 8466 3418 8487 3450 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 254DEG 12KT 3438 8503

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>