Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS TN INTO AL IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE... COMBINED WITH ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS... NEAR 2 INCH PWS AND WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA... HAS HEIGHTENED THE
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY
NORTH GA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY.

HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BESIDES FLOODING...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN AT THAT POINT AS
EVEN ONLY A FEW STORMS ON RADAR COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

APPEARS VORT MAX REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUS...EXPECT AN ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE...BUT POSSIBLE TO SEE
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST IN FUTURE UPDATES. PW VALUES AGAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ONCE AGAIN STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE DIFFERENCE FOR TOMORROW IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVERAGE THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
THIS WOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY... AT LEAST INITIALLY.

BIG DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AGAIN TOMORROW. MET IS MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER TOMORROW WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND DRIER IN TERMS OF
POPS...BUT STILL PICKING UP ON CONVECTION. EVEN WITH CLOUDS...THINK
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND LOWER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD
COVERAGE DOES NOT IMPROVE AT ALL...HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW COULD END UP
BEING TOO WARM.

11

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GA SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH
GA ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A WEDGE OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR DRAINING DOWN FROM THE NE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY. IF VERIFIES... THIS WOULD SERVE TO DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST NORTH GA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. 39

.PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AN AXIS OF VORTICITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
AND NORTH GEORGIA.  A SURFACE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT TRAVERSES
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BUT
GENERALLY IN LINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ATWELL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2
INCHES AGAIN ON THURSDAY... WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014/
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. TIMING AT THE TAF SITES IS HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT BE CONTINUOUS DIRECTLY AT THE SITE.
WITH STORMS...WILL SEE VSBYS DECREASE TO AROUND 1SM BUT FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ALSO EXPECT VRB WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE DIMINISH...THEN CONCERN BECOMES LOW /IFR TO
MVFR/ CIGS IN THE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS...CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO EFFECTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  90  69  89 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         72  88  72  87 /  60  50  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     66  83  69  84 /  60  50  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  88  70  86 /  60  50  30  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  88 /  60  50  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  87  71  87 /  60  50  30  30
MACON           71  91  70  90 /  50  50  30  30
ROME            70  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  88  69  86 /  60  50  30  30
VIDALIA         72  91  73  90 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041300-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
128 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASHING FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVING... AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OR TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME... WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE GROUNDS ARE WET AND STREAMS ARE HIGH DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST
/ATLFFAFFC/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
303 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ092-093-104-031930-
303 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ANDERSONVILLE THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NEW ERA...AMERICUS...BUMPHEAD...LA
CROSSE...ELLAVILLE...SHILOH...PENNINGTON...METHVINS...
ANDERSONVILLE...CLEARVIEW AND ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 8433 3227 8432 3227 8405 3204 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 241DEG 2KT 3217 8416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ089>091-031945-
308 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
MUSCOGEE...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SAND HILL TO ZELLOBEE...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MUSCOGEE...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ZELLOBEE...
EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...VISTA TERRACE...NORTH FORT BENNING...
EDGEWOOD...HIGHLAND PARK...CHRISTOPHER...JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT
BENNING...MANTA...CUSSETA...AVONDALE...SAINT MARYS HILLS...BENNING
PARK...BENNING HILLS AND CARTER ACRES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 8499 3241 8499 3242 8497 3246 8501
      3249 8500 3250 8479 3248 8460 3224 8460
      3224 8478 3225 8491 3227 8491 3232 8501
      3235 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 102DEG 5KT 3239 8486 3236 8473
          3231 8464

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ078-089-090-102-032000-
335 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
40 MPH WINDS IN STEWART...MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GREEN ISLAND HILLS TO LOUVALE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
STEWART...MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LOUVALE...
JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING...CUSSETA...VISTA TERRACE...COLUMBUS
METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...HIGHLAND PARK...SAINT MARYS HILLS...SAND
HILL...NORTH FORT BENNING...MIDLAND...GOAT ROCK LAKE...MULBERRY
GROVE...FORTSON...CATAULA AND FLAT ROCK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 8506 3213 8507 3220 8498 3223 8497
      3223 8493 3227 8490 3232 8501 3243 8497
      3246 8501 3252 8501 3264 8511 3266 8510
      3266 8479 3246 8478 3209 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 031DEG 3KT 3254 8498 3239 8493
          3218 8487

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ078-089-090-102-032030-
358 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN STEWART...
MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOUNTAIN HILL TO JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT
BENNING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
STEWART...MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND FORT BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR FIELD...LAUREL HILLS...
GREEN ISLAND HILLS...HIGHLAND PARK...AVONDALE...BENNING PARK...
BENNING HILLS...CARTER ACRES...BATTLE PARK...CUSTER ROAD TERRACE...
COLUMBUS...GOAT ROCK LAKE...LAKE HARDING...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE AND
MOUNTAIN HILL. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8515 3283 8483 3244 8482 3221 8479
      3222 8493 3227 8490 3232 8501 3243 8497
      3246 8501 3252 8501 3264 8511 3267 8510
      3269 8512 3273 8512 3274 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 270DEG 2KT 3276 8498 3251 8496
          3224 8489

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ091-092-103-104-032045-
414 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND 40 MPH WINDS IN
WEBSTER...SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PUTNAM...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER...SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CEDAR CREEK...
CONCORD...WALLS CROSSING...MURRAYS CROSSROADS...ELLAVILLE...PUTNAM...
DOYLE...BRANTLEY...TAZEWELL...BUENA VISTA...SHILOH...CONCORD...
FRIENDSHIP...DRANEVILLE AND SEMINOLE.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING..

&&

LAT...LON 3212 8461 3242 8459 3240 8435 3238 8435
      3239 8434 3239 8432 3237 8432 3237 8427
      3211 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 045DEG 5KT 3223 8445