Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND
THIS MAY HELP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS THOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AT
THE UPPER LEVELS TO KEY IN ON IN THE SHORT TERM. BASICALLY WILL
CONTINUE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FAIRLY BIG DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW
WITH THE MAV BEING WARMER THAN THE MET. AT ATL...THERE IS A SIX
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS IS CAUSED BY MORE CLOUD COVERAGE DEPICTED BY
THE NAM. THINK THE NAM IS OVERDOING CLOUD COVERAGE THOUGH SO STARTED
WITH A BLEND...AND THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

11

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

WEAK TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND. WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GA BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION AT THE TAF
SITES. TIMING IS A CHALLENGE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...TSRA MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ATL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS RATHER THAN LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THESE STORMS EXPECT
SHORT LIVED VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BKN-OVC CIGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WIND SHIFT NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. MEDIUM ON WIND AND VSBY DUE TO TSRA POTENTIAL.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  92 /  40  40  30  40
ATLANTA         73  90  73  88 /  30  40  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     66  86  66  84 /  40  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    68  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        73  94  74  90 /  20  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     71  90  72  89 /  40  40  30  40
MACON           71  94  71  92 /  30  40  40  30
ROME            68  92  69  91 /  40  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  90  70  88 /  20  40  40  40
VIDALIA         73  95  73  92 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
542 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GAZ071-022115-
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BLOUNT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
BLOUNT...HIGH FALLS STATE PARK...COLLIER...BERNER...FORSYTH...
JULIETTE...PLANT SCHERER...DAMES FERRY AND BOLINGBROKE. RESIDENTS IN
THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES
SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 8405 3318 8404 3320 8401 3320 8388
      3315 8381 3313 8382 3306 8374 3303 8372
      3298 8372 3296 8370 3291 8377 3287 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 317DEG 17KT 3312 8395

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GAZ059-071-072-022145-
513 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE...JONES AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BERNER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS MONROE...JONES AND JASPER COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND BERNER...PLANT SCHERER...JULIETTE...JARRELL
PLANTATION...CLINTON...BRADLEY...WAYSIDE...BLOUNTSVILLE...ROUND
OAK...GRAY AND DAMES FERRY. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8399 3320 8392 3320 8386 3318 8382
      3319 8381 3321 8383 3323 8382 3312 8345
      3289 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 296DEG 15KT 3313 8384

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