Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN FL. 500MB ANALYSIS AND WV LOOP SHOWS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA.

THE 16Z HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIED TO ORIENT THE POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND CLOSE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. GOOD INSTABILITY DOES EXIST
AT THE SURFACE...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR UNTIL THE COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THE
CWFA...INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...STORMS MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AREAS TO THE
NORTH RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO ANY TRAINING STORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE POTENT EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER...
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST IN THE FLOW TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE ADDITIONAL POINT TO NOTE IS THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE CREEPING ABOVE 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS
LINE...WITH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA APPROACHING 105 DEGREES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE 105-108 DEGREE VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.

11/ATWELL

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN UNCOMMONLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF BUILDING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE
WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG...BUT GEORGIA REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...BUT I DO NOT BELIEVE THE
FORECAST AREA IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE TO
ELIMINATE POPS ALTOGETHER.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 127 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
THE BETTER HEATING THIS MORNING. NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS AL THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE HI-RES MODELS DON'T HAVE A GREAT
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY TEMPO/PROB GROUPS AT
THIS TIME. MODELS ALSO HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING...BUT IT
MAY BE LATER DUE TO ANY PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  91  72  97 /  50  40  30  10
ATLANTA         74  88  73  94 /  40  40  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  84  67  90 /  50  40  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    72  89  71  94 /  50  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        75  92  73  96 /  60  40  30  10
GAINESVILLE     72  89  71  94 /  50  40  30  10
MACON           75  92  72  97 /  50  40  30  10
ROME            72  89  71  95 /  60  40  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  73  89  71  94 /  50  40  30  10
VIDALIA         77  95  74  97 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1032 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER VIA THE
WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

GAZ066-182315-
623 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...40 MPH WINDS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 619 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF STATE LINE PARK...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TROUP COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE STATE LINE PARK...ABBOTTSFORD...WEST POINT...PIEDMONT
HEIGHTS...LONG CANE...CANNONVILLE...WARES CROSSROADS...SMITHS
CROSSROAD...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...HILLCREST...LAGRANGE...
HARRISONVILLE...LOUISE...BIG SPRINGS AND MOUNTVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8513 3320 8510 3317 8508 3322 8495
      3322 8487 3287 8486 3287 8519 3313 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 266DEG 21KT 3300 8527