Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
REGIONS... ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPARKED
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TN AND NE AL AND INTO NW GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. EARLIER... A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE AL DID PROMPT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FROM THE HUNTSVILLE WEATHER OFFICE... SUGGESTING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED BRIEF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AFTER THAT... EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ELSEWHERE... MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BUT NOTHING STRONG
TO SEVERE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DUE TO SOME WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING.
WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA OVERNIGHT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL DUE TO CONTINUED UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE STATE LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF NORTH GA FOR
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... AND SPREAD THAT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL GA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME... MODELS ARE SHOWING
AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SECOND DISTURBANCE. THIS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO EVEN POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH INTO THE LATE MONDAY
EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING...HOWEVER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... WILL LEAN TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING TEMPS ONGOING AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLOUDINESS TIMING ACROSS THE AREA.

39

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY...BUT SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING. SREF AND
NAM REMAIN THE FASTEST WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE SLOWER
SIDE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
HELPING TO LIMIT SOME OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY SHUT IT OFF. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID
90S.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON... WARRANTING A
TEMPO 18-22Z -SHRA FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL MVFR CIGS SPREAD IN FROM THE SSW LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z MON. THE SAME UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DRAW CLOSER ON MONDAY... AND SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HAS PROMPTED ADDING A PROB30 18-24Z
-TSRA FOR MON AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD... WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS
THAN 6KTS TONIGHT... THEN 10-12KTS ON MON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPO TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  92  71  92 /  20  40  40  30
ATLANTA         72  90  72  89 /  30  40  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  83  67  86 /  40  50  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    70  89  70  88 /  40  50  40  30
COLUMBUS        73  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     72  89  71  89 /  30  50  40  30
MACON           72  94  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
ROME            70  89  70  90 /  40  50  40  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  70  90 /  20  40  40  30
VIDALIA         74  94  75  94 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THAT A FEW OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG AND AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER VIA THE
WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ037-049-050-172215-
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...40 MPH WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN OCONEE...MORGAN AND GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
OCONEE...MORGAN AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MADISON...APALACHEE...
SALEM...WRAYSWOOD AND GRESHAMVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8327 3364 8320 3356 8328 3359 8356
      3373 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 270DEG 17KT 3363 8347

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ006-007-172215-
546 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JONES MILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COHUTTA WILDERNESS...JONES MILL...
COLWELL...HIGDON...CHERRY LOG...HEMP...DIAL...HURST...LOVING...
MORGANTON...MINERAL BLUFF...BLUE RIDGE...EPWORTH AND
MCCAYSVILLE-COPPERHILL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8414 3495 8418 3491 8412 3488 8411
      3485 8414 3481 8414 3473 8421 3477 8464
      3482 8459 3484 8459 3486 8462 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 270DEG 17KT 3491 8458